Dates are dangerous things in Afghanistan. When President Obama promised the drawdown would start in July 2011, the Taleban said that they would wait him out.
Military commanders countered that any withdrawal would be “conditions-based”, which means that soldiers will leave only when security improves. Unfortunately, almost every independent measure of the conflict suggests that security has got worse and will continue to deteriorate.
Military commanders would prefer to keep as many men there as possible, while the White House and most of America’s allies want to bring soldiers home.
With the advent of summer, two things are likely to happen. First, violence will increase, bolstering the military’s case for keeping soldiers in Afghanistan.
Second, on July 1, when the drawdown should start, seven areas of Afghanistan will be formally handed over from Nato control to Afghan forces. This is Nato’s exit strategy but its soldiers won’t simply pack up and leave.
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Western officials warn that is just the start of a four-phase process due to last up to 18 months. If the drawdown is too small, President Obama risks accusations of tokenism. If it is too large, Nato fears the US will trigger an exodus of allies.
“The country should be complete by 2014,” said a Western official. “But that is a deadline fraught with potential disaster.”