1. Breach of protocol
I know we don’t talk about Brexit anymore. And certainly not on a Friday. But Chris Smyth and I reveal in this morning’s Times that Liz Truss would like Boris Johnson to do just that.
The moment at which the West is more united than ever may, you’d think, seem a strange time for ministers to reignite the row over the Northern Ireland protocol.
But the foreign secretary – who, don’t forget, has responsibility for this thorniest of issues as well as Brexit more broadly and, you know, World War Three – is keen for the PM to force the issue back onto the international agenda.
Whitehall sources tell us that with May’s Stormont elections fast approaching – and the DUP imploding and facing challenges from both its right flank and the centre over its opposition to checks at ports – Truss wants Johnson to issue Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European commission, with an ultimatum.
The choice: intensive talks to satisfy unionist complaints with the Irish Sea border, or Truss will trigger Article 16 of the protocol and suspend it altogether before those elections.
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That, it goes without saying, would be a severe test to UK-EU unity at a time when it is arguably needed more than ever – not to mention a seismic intervention in Northern Irish politics ahead of an already fraught election.
President Biden visits Brussels next week. We know from today’s Times that Boris Johnson is seeking a one-to-one meeting with him on Ukraine. Dare he raise it then – or disrupt his own big moment on the world stage by raising a little local difficulty?
Foreign Office sources, interestingly, believe they have finally convinced both Brussels and Washington that there are real problems with the protocol – and the only sticking point is timing. We’ll find out soon enough. Brexit is back.
2. Wake me up before you go, Joe
More on that summit between President Biden and Boris Johnson. As the Russian advance on Kyiv stalls and President Zelensky increasingly hopeful that peace is in sight, No 10 want to talk to the White House about an endgame.
During talks with Johnson, Zelensky is reported to have discussed how other countries could act as “guarantors of that peace” if a settlement is reached – and the PM wants to thrash out terms with Biden.
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A government source said: “Thoughts are turning to the endgame. The losses Russia is suffering are unsustainable. If there is a settlement, there needs to be a discussion about how that settlement can be guaranteed.” Yet the mere fact of talks over peace between Western nations is likely to prove contentious in Moscow.
The prime minister is also understood to be open to accepting an invitation to attend the European Council after the summit, though an invitation has not been extended yet.
An invitation would represent a symbolic step after Brexit – though, clearly, Liz Truss’s preferred strategy over the Northern Ireland protocol would complicate the charm offensive.
3. Polls apart
There’s still no evidence for that Westminster truism that the Ukraine crisis has saved Boris Johnson in this week’s YouGov poll for The Times. So much so that the voting intention ratings are completely unchanged.
Labour still have a six point lead over the Conservatives. Sir Keir Starmer’s party are on 39 per cent, unchanged from last week, with the Tories on 33 per cent, also unchanged.
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In third are the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent – unchanged – with the Greens on 7 per cent, also unchanged. Reform UK are (you guessed it) unchanged too, on four per cent. Let’s see if these numbers shift after next week’s spring statement.
4. Breaking news
Just in over the last hour: Russia Today has finally had its licence to broadcast in the UK revoked by Ofcom. If Nadine Dorries didn’t have that Friday feeling first thing this morning, she will now.
Alex Salmond’s news channel of choice had already disappeared from UK TV screens, of course, but the regulator’s decision this morning ensures there will be no way back for the Kremlin’s propaganda arm.
That could, however, raise a question that some ministers had feared – will the Kremlin now ban the BBC by way of reprisals?
5. Have your say
Dame Julie Walters has written a moving piece on the plight of mothers and children for Red Box this morning. It’s every bit as good as you’d expect – if depressing.
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“Half of those who have already fled Ukraine are children,” she writes. “I visited Kosovo, in 2000, shortly after the war had ended there, with Save the Children. Then, as now, schools had been hit in the fighting. And it was utterly awful.
“I really remember the children talking about the fear. Fear of uncertainty. Fear of losing their parents. Fear of the chaos. Because the chaos of conflict, in Kosovo, and now in Ukraine, is terrifying for a child and it’s chaos from day one. Seeing their parents frightened will be in their psyche and in their bodies for the rest of their lives. They will have to carry this with them.”
It’s great to have her here, of course. Let us know who you’d like to see write next by emailing redbox@thetimes.co.uk.
Patrick Maguire’s analysis first appeared in the Red Box morning newsletter
