Britain and continental Europe could be gripped over the next few decades by freezing winters similar to the “little ice age” that began in the 17th century, researchers predict.
A study found that waning sunspot activity could lead to a series of bitterly cold winters, with average temperatures in Britain falling by about 2C.
The scientist who led the research, Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at Reading University, found last year that a decrease in sunspots could block winds that can keep Europe from excessive cold in winter.
In the research, published this week by the Institute of Physics (IoP), Lockwood and his team analysed the activity of the sun over the past 9,300 years using Met Office data.
They show that over the next 50 years there is about a one in 10 chance of the sun returning to conditions seen from 1645 to 1715, known as the Maunder minimum, when there was little sunspot activity.
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This period has been called “the little ice age” and saw the River Thames regularly freeze over in London.
This means average winter temperatures could fall below 2.5C, according to the report published in the IOP journal Environmental Research Letters. By comparison, the average British winter temperature for the last two decades has been 5.04C.
The scientists have not yet analysed what would happen to the rest of the world’s climate.