How did we end up with an arcane piece of Commons procedure turning into one of Westminster’s most furious political rows?
Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the Commons, last week issued a grovelling apology after breaking with convention to allow Labour to wreck an SNP motion on Gaza.
With the SNP and many Tory MPs now saying they have lost confidence in Hoyle, the Speaker faces a serious threat to his position this week as he tries to make up for what he says was a mistake prompted by concern about MPs’ safety.
What is Sir Lindsay Hoyle offering to the SNP after the Commons row?
The party is unhappy that MPs did not end up having a proper vote last week and says it wants parliament to be clear that it backs an immediate ceasefire.
This would also allow it to highlight divisions within Labour about how strongly to condemn Israel’s actions. In a statement on Thursday, Hoyle said he regretted his decision and offered to grant an emergency debate on Gaza if the SNP applied for one.
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Why won’t that solve the problem?
Emergency debates granted under standing order 24 of Commons procedure are usually held on a neutral motion saying only “that the House has considered the specific matter”. This would fall short of the SNP desire to bring a “meaningful vote” on a strongly-worded motion calling for an immediate ceasefire and condemning “collective punishment” of Palestinians.
Can Sir Lindsay Hoyle do anything about that?
He can, but only by again breaking with convention and his previous promises in a way that risks inflaming Tory anger. The Conservatives have already warned Hoyle that he must not break with convention again and allow an emergency debate to lead to a vote on a substantive motion.
Why is this bringing back Brexit flashbacks?
Hoyle’s predecessor John Bercow repeatedly allowed emergency debates on binding motions in a way that enraged Brexiteers.
Bercow used his discretion as Speaker to allow anti-Brexit rebels to use emergency debates to seize control of the order paper and first force Theresa May to delay Britain’s departure from the EU, and then pass a law blocking Boris Johnson from leaving without a deal.
How likely is Hoyle to allow an emergency debate?
The Speaker owes his position in large measure to Tory MPs who appreciated his promise to end Bercow-style constitutional chicanery.
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Conservative backbenchers have described his decision last week as a “total betrayal” of that promise and if he again breaks with convention it is likely to add to anger on the government side. However, if he refuses the SNP a chance for a meaningful vote, it is likely to intensify the party’s desire to oust him
Are there any other options?
Ministers could offer to lend the SNP some government time in the Commons, allowing what might be called a “meaningful vote” on Gaza. Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, has said she is “sympathetic to the SNP being given additional time”. However, a decision does not yet appear to have been taken.
Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle survive?
Monday is likely to be a crucial day, as MPs returning to Westminster decide if last week’s fury has cooled. The most serious threat to Hoyle probably comes from the SNP. While many Tories have called for him to go, the party is divided with many senior cabinet ministers backing Hoyle. But the SNP is united in its opposition.
If the third largest party in Westminster remains adamant that it believes Hoyle is no longer impartial and wants him gone, it is hard to see that his position will be tenable for long. However, as there is no clear way of forcing out the Speaker, it will be Hoyle himself who will judge this, and so far he is determined to stay.
