This is such a significant game for England on Saturday. This is when we will see where they really are. Yes, Wales gave them a fright and a considerable test of their resilience at Twickenham a fortnight ago, but this is another notch up in difficulty and, should England triumph in such a hostile environment at Murrayfield, it would be a true sign that they are making meaningful progress after the World Cup.
Win this and England will be three from three, with Ireland going to Twickenham in the next round of matches. That could be a grand-slam decider. That could be huge.
But this is going to be some challenge. I’ve been lucky to visit Murrayfield a lot in my television role and, though I had always enjoyed my times there as a player, being there as a broadcaster has opened my eyes to what a superb rugby stadium it is.
I simply love the atmosphere there. I always take the one or two-mile walk from the hotel to the ground beforehand, just to savour the scene with all the fans taking the same road to the ground.
I had not been to a Scotland-England game in Edinburgh until I retired and, when I first did, I realised immediately what a huge game this is. The vibe is totally different from all the other matches there.
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As a player, I always thought that facing France in Paris was the most hostile environment, but a Scotland-England atmosphere undoubtedly rivals it.
England will know all this. Historically, their trips to Cardiff to face Wales have been the biggest games in terms of intense passion and rivalry, but in recent years, with all due respect to Wales, those games have not had the same bite because the home team have not been championship challengers. For England, their away matches in Scotland are now bigger than those in Wales.
Having said all that, I do have Scotland down to win. Despite losing to France, they have to be comfortable with the expectation that they are good enough to win this fixture — and, at home, they definitely are.
England are still limited in attack, even if at times the fly half, George Ford, can ignite his back line. The problem is that up front against Wales, only Ben Earl really gave them some real punch in the carry going forwards. Ellis Genge’s recall will help that.
In the back line, though, the return of Ollie Lawrence at centre is a huge boost. This season he has been one of the in-form players in the Gallagher Premiership, possibly the best player.
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Against Wales the England centres Fraser Dingwall and Henry Slade struggled at times with George North’s power. It was obvious that they needed a bit more muscle in that midfield and Lawrence will clearly provide that.
For Scotland, the centre, Sione Tuipulotu, has been one of the players of the tournament with his devastating carrying ability, so Lawrence will need to be a match for that.
England’s new blitz defence under Felix Jones is clearly still a work in progress, and although it looked much better against Wales than it had against Italy in the first round, it will face a sterner test on Saturday, simply because Scotland have a much more potent attack than Wales.
They have the mercurial Finn Russell at fly half but they also have those carrying talents of Tuipulotu and the wing Duhan van der Merwe, while the centre, Huw Jones, is a dangerous runner too.
Earl has easily been England’s best player in this tournament, while the lock, Ollie Chessum, has shown great energy off the line in defence, as has Slade, but where England came unstuck against Wales was when Warren Gatland’s team went back inside against the blitz. On one particular occasion for Alex Mann’s first-half try, Will Stuart and Maro Itoje were exposed as they had lost that energy off the line inside the ball. The blitz is a draining defensive system and it is going to take England some time to get to the fitness levels required to maintain that.
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Russell is a very different player from, say, two years ago. Against France he was incredibly patient, staying in the kick battle for a long time in the first half. In the past it might have been easy to say that he would cause trouble for his side by naively playing into the blitz defence, but not now. He is so much smarter.
Against France he bided his time and then picked off tiring front-five forwards at the right times. He can do that again against England because, while the mobility of their front five used to be a point of difference, I am not sure that is the case any more. They find it hard to repeat those high-energy defensive efforts, as was shown for Mann’s try.
Wales found it difficult to break down England’s blitz off nine, but they did find reward when prepared to throw four passes and be brave.
This was highlighted in the build-up to Mann’s try. Wales began on England’s 10m line and played four passes; the fourth pass landed on Wales’s own 10m line, so they had had to play from 20 metres behind the gainline, but they then got the break on the outside. They went left and then back right before an inside ball caught Stuart and Itoje napping.
Russell will know this. He will know that he and his attackers have got to be accurate with those four passes and he must choose his moment wisely. He will also know that if he and his back line stand deep enough, the opposition can’t blitz because they will be worried that the ball is going to get outside them.
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If you are flat and play four passes against a Felix Jones defence, you will never get past it. You have to set up deeper, but that saps more of your attack’s energy, as you have to reload further into a deeper line. It takes a lot of bravery to set up like that and risk being tackled so far behind the gainline.
What can England do to improve their attack? They did not get one penalty in the first half against Wales and that was because they did not take Wales through the phases. If a side are comfortable with ball in hand they can go through eight or nine phases and be fairly sure that a penalty will result, but it looks as if England do not trust themselves enough in this regard.
If they do not get any reward from three or four phases they immediately kick, even if they are in a decent attacking position. They are just trying to win penalties from lineout mauls rather than stressing the opposition through multiple phases.
While they will inevitably have to kick a lot, I would really like to see them try to go through the phases more and back themselves physically against Scotland. But it will be tough for them. Scotland have won four of their past six matches against England with a draw at Twickenham in 2019, too.
Scotland should have beaten France in the previous round. Anyone who was there or watched it on television will know that, and I cannot see them slipping up again.
