Les Kiss, the Irish defence coach, firmly believes the sporting recession which gripped the French international rugby side in the aftermath of the 2011 World Cup has come to an end.
Beaten finalists in that tournament, France have since dropped down the world rankings at an alarming rate, managing an overall win-ratio of just 42 per cent from 38 internationals under Philippe Saint-André, who has yet to record a victory over Ireland in his four-year tenure.
If this all seemed to be pointing towards an Irish victory in Cardiff on October 11, then Kiss is wary of jumping to such definite conclusions. The sides will meet at the Millennium Stadium - in all probability - to decide who earns the right to advance to a quarter-final tie against Argentina, and thereby avoid an unwelcome last-eight date with New Zealand
For while Ireland’s head-to-head record against the French post-2011 may be impressive (two wins, two draws), in the 35 years prior to then, Ireland recorded just five wins in the fixture.
History lesson aside, the evidence of last Saturday, when France defeated England 25-20 in the Stade de France, suggests Saint-André’s side have suddenly rediscovered both their form and their desire.
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“It was certainly a more committed France,” Kiss said. “And we have to be wary. Every World Cup, they have gone out and delivered and it seems clear they are primed and ready to go.
“Personally, I have always found them a tough team to coach against, on a number of fronts. And the scariest front is that they can be such a dangerous attacking team from anywhere on the pitch.
“Throughout my time over seven years (as part of the Irish coaching set-up), you’re inevitably going to get bitten here or there by that flair that they have. Two years ago, when we won the [RBS] Six Nations [Championship], they weren’t delivering over the course of the tournament, but they delivered that day against us. They are capable of doing that, producing a 30 per cent improvement in their performance levels over the course of a week. That day was a massive battle for us, and while we were good enough to get the money, we know it will always be a tough gig against them.
“Whether they will peak for the World Cup, I am not quite sure, but they pride themselves, as a team, on what they can do in the tournament. They are going to be locked and loaded, backing themselves to do well, but hopefully we will be in a good position too.”
In the meantime, they have the small matter of dealing with a wounded Welsh side, intent on correcting the perceived injustices of Cardiff two-and-a-half weeks ago, when Kiss and Joe Schmidt masterminded a 35-21 victory for Ireland in the first of their four World Cup warm-up games.
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In the aftermath of that game, Shaun Edwards, the Welsh coach warned: “It’ll be a different Wales that Ireland will face in three weeks time, that’s for certain.”
Aware of this, Kiss spoke yesterday about ‘backlashes’ and ‘onslaughts’. This, clearly, will be a friendly in name only.
If only Welsh vengeance and French revivals were the sum of his concerns. Instead, he cut a worried figure yesterday, knowing the awkward conversations he and Schmidt will have to conduct over the course of this weekend, when they cut their squad from 46 players down to 31.
That process has already begun, yet it will crank up in the early hours of Sunday morning, when the real discussion begins. “We won’t get much sleep, put it that way,” Kiss said. “There are some fairly tough decisions to make, important decisions, not only from the rugby perspective but the individual as well. It’s a tough thing to tell a guy he’s not going to be involved.
“As coaches, we need to make sure we have our ducks in a row in terms of what we’re looking at, making the decisions that are going to serve us well for the World Cup. So Sunday is going to be busy. The other thing that comes into play is you need to get a full medical on every player that’s in consideration. We’ve improved our depth in recent years and we’ve just got to make sure we keep an eye on everyone who has a chance to perform. There’s no agenda set. We will just get in there and talk away because in that type of meeting, you don’t need an agenda, you know what it’s about - it’s about going through each position and picking the right men.
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“Combinations are important. You are trying to design who will fit in where. We’ve got open minds and hopefully something like an injury will not intervene so that we will have a clean sheet to work with.”
So far this month, they haven’t been so lucky. Tommy O’Donnell has already had his tournament hopes cut short while Andrew Trimble, Cian Healy and Marty Moore have all been nursing knocks. Good news arrived yesterday, however.
“Trimby trained fully and is fit to play this weekend,” Kiss said. “Marty Moore will train on Thursday. He has got a boot on at the moment for protection around that joint but he will be expected to be able to pull through the session on Thursday. The first decision is: can he play?
“Cian Healy is still in the same process. Every day he is gradually getting exposed to more rugby. He actually had a good exposure today and he did a little extra after the session, in terms of some contact work, and there is some really positive stuff happening [with Healy] at the moment. I couldn’t say whether he will play this week or not but I know that the medics will give us a good view on that.”