The assassination yesterday of Pierre Gemayel, a Christian Lebanese Cabinet minister who was an outspoken critic of Syria, is a brutal act calculated to bring down the pro-Western Government in Beirut and sabotage attempts to curb the influence of Hezbollah. Both the target and the timing underline the cynical attempt to stir sectarian conflict, blunt the Lebanese opposition to Syria and its Hezbollah allies and intimidate the Lebanese Government and all those proposing the setting-up of an international tribunal to try suspects in the killing of the former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri.
Mr Gemayel, who was the Industry Minister, came from a leading Christian political family. His grandfather founded the Phalange party. His uncle Bashir was elected President but assassin-ated in September 1982, soon after the Israeli invasion, and was succeeded by Amin, Pierre’s father. All were staunchly anti-Syrian. All were seen as strong defenders of the Christians’ leading role in the country.
The timing is also far from coincidental. It comes amid political turmoil caused by the resignation of six pro-Syrian Shia Cabinet ministers and on the eve of massive planned street demonstrations by Hezbollah and its allies attempting to topple a government they accuse of being allied with the United States. And within hours of the last resignation, the Cabinet defiantly voted to approve United Nations plans for a tribunal to try the suspects in the 2005 Hariri assassination. The UN has already linked that killing to Damascus; and there are many very senior Syrians deeply worried about what any trial would reveal.
Hezbollah has every reason to applaud the assassination. After the Israeli invasion, it saw an opportunity to capitalise on popular acclaim throughout the Arab world and increase its power and representation in the Cabinet. It is still well armed (despite the woolly UN plans for disarmament), it still dominates the south and it is still relentlessly determined to keep up the attacks on Israel. The Government has so far resisted pressure to surrender power to Hezbollah militants; Mr Gemayel has paid the price.
How deeply Damascus is implicated is unclear. Mr Gemayel is the third anti-Syrian public figure to be murdered since the Hariri assassination. But Syria is increasingly isolated and its expulsion from Lebanon has made President Assad’s position precarious. He has an incentive at the moment to display reasonableness and moderation, especially at a time when the Americans appear ready to re-engage in a dialogue over Iraq. Not all those around him, however, share such a concern. Those in the army and brutal security agents who were corruptly enriching themselves in Lebanon are determined to avenge their expulsion and intimidate their opponents.
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Within Hezbollah there are also strong factions determined to stop any rapprochement with the West. This, they fear, would reduce Syrian support for Hezbollah, and any comprehensive settlement in the region would not only nullify their role as the main opposition to Israel but undercut claims to maintaining a standing militia within Lebanon. Killing Mr Gemayel, militants argue, would swiftly kill off any US-Syrian dialogue. Poor Lebanon, as often, is the victim. There are too many forces at work for whom death is an opportunity to be leveraged.