Brexit is unlikely to be the “constitutional game changer” that leads Scots to vote for independence, a new analysis has concluded.
Nicola Sturgeon has used the Leave vote in the 2016 referendum to put Scottish independence back on the agenda, claiming that Scotland — which voted to remain in the European Union — deserved another chance to decide its constitutional future.
A report by the think tank UK in a Changing Europe suggests that Scots do not share the first minister’s view on Brexit, Europe or independence.
The report, by academics at King’s College, London, said that Scots are not moving across to support independence because of Brexit in the way that Ms Sturgeon had hoped.
The analysis, in the report Brexit and Public Opinion, looked into the approach of Scots to Brexit and compared this to the approach taken throughout the rest of the UK.
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While it found that there were small differences in attitude, Scots were more in line with the rest of the UK in their approach to Brexit than the first minister had anticipated.
The analysis said: “All of this suggests that, despite the differential referendum result in Scotland, leaving the EU may not represent the constitutional game changer that some expected.
“The prevalence of euroscepticism in Scotland, coupled with attitudes towards the shape of Brexit that correspond more closely with those of Westminster than Holyrood, hint at an electorate that may not reflect the resolutely pro-European outlook of the SNP.” It added: “Even more crucially, it appears that the very people required to change their minds in order to push support for independence over the 50 per cent mark — those who voted No in the 2014 independence referendum, and Remain in the EU referendum — may not be so attached to the EU as to be willing to break up the union with the rest of the UK to retain Scotland’s EU membership.”
Looking at the available data, the academics concluded that a commitment to the union with the UK was more important than support for the EU in the crucial group of Remainers that Ms Sturgeon needs to win over.
Early last year, Ms Sturgeon made it clear that she wanted to hold another independence vote before the UK left the EU but backed off from this position after the SNP did badly in last year’s elections.
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The first minister is still insisting that Scots should have a vote on independence after the Brexit deal is known, but she has not set a timetable on that vote.
Adam Tomkins, for the Conservatives, said: “This again goes to show that people in Scotland, even if they didn’t vote for Brexit, want the SNP government to get on and make a success of it.”
Neil Findlay, for Labour, said: “The people of Scotland see through Nicola Sturgeon’s transparent attempts to use Brexit simply as the latest excuse to pursue her constitutional agenda.”
Michael Russell, Scotland’s Brexit minister, said: “The people of Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union.
“The best outcome for Scotland and the UK is continued membership of the single market and customs union — something underlined by the leaked UK government analysis showing the likely hit to the economy in all post-Brexit scenarios.”