The party would be wiser to acknowledge that the answer lies in its own conduct and policies. Constitutional orthodoxy asserts that the first real crisis between Holyrood and Whitehall will emerge when a Conservative government in London confronts a Labour one in Edinburgh. A solitary by-election in the chancellor of the exchequer’s home constituency has shown that Scotland need not wait. Such is the animosity between Gordon Brown and Jack McConnell that the chancellor’s elevation to No 10 Downing Street will surely provoke confrontation.
The damage inflicted on Labour’s campaign by sniping between these two showed neither man in a good light. That impression deepened when defeat was confirmed. The chancellor’s acolytes launched a campaign of character assassination against McConnell. The first minister’s team retaliated with slightly less venom.
More important to the voters of Fife were the local issues that animated this by-election. Canvassers reported interest in toll charges on the Forth Road Bridge, healthcare, schools, jobs and anti-social behaviour. Voters felt let down by Labour on these matters, and voted accordingly. Ostensibly such concerns play into the hands of the Lib Dems’ aptitude for campaigns tailored to parochial tastes. But if Lib Dem activists imagine their victory constitutes a mandate from the Scottish electorate, they are deluded. This was an election to the House of Commons and these issues have not been its responsibility since 1999. They are the responsibility of the Scottish executive, where the Lib Dems have collective responsibility for all of them and direct ministerial responsibility for many. By pretending that was not the case, the Lib Dems won on a spectacularly false prospectus. In doing so they demonstrated that they have perfected the cynical tactic of sharing power in Scotland without admitting that they have any responsibility for the way it is exercised.
The campaign that sent Willie Rennie to Westminster could only be fought because the Scottish electorate is uncertain about the respective responsibilities of Westminster and Holyrood. This newspaper has led the discussion about the proper division of powers. The duty to pursue that debate to firm conclusions has never been clearer. Democracy can only function properly when popular choices are informed choices. Scotland needs a devolution settlement in which lines of accountability are crystal clear. This by-election confirmed that it does not yet exist. The case for modernisation has never been clearer.
The challenge must fall to Labour and the Lib Dems because the other stark message from Dunfermline and West Fife is that the Scottish National party is flatlining and the Conservatives are still irrelevant north of the border. Devolution’s one undeniable achievement appears to have been to kill nationalism, as Dewar predicted.
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As the parties gear up for next year’s Holyrood election there is scant prospect of change. The betting is that Mr McConnell will still be first minister when voting ends. Still more likely is that Gordon Brown will succeed Tony Blair as prime minister. That makes the personal relationship that condemned Labour to defeat doubly significant. Devolution must work if Scotland is to modernise. The country’s political future is too important to abandon to the mercy of a personal feud.