Paisley said of the talks: “I believe that a golden opportunity has been available to realise a stable and entirely peaceful future and I told the prime minister that, in some respects, we have never been closer to solving the problems that have plagued us for decades.” He added that “we are committed to stay the course”.
Such words are like cheques and once written they cannot be withdrawn without a heavy loss of credibility. Paisley has committed himself in unequivocal terms to seeking a power-sharing arrangement with Sinn Fein provided the IRA is stood down as a paramilitary force and all its arms are verifiably decommissioned. The man who once opposed sharing power with any non-unionist is now committed to “staying the course” and reaching agreement.
His words have put the immediate onus on Sinn Fein and the IRA to deliver a public commitment to non-violence and decommissioning. Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein president, has encouraged speculation that they will, stating that “the IRA is not the problem” and that it can be “removed”.
That too is a cheque which the people of Ireland, north and south, are entitled to cash. If it is not honoured, it will bounce back on Adams and on the TDs, MPs and MLAs who surrounded him as he made his statement. It will affect his party’s credibility, not only in Northern Ireland, but also in the republic where he is grooming it for power and for a future government partnership with Fianna Fail.
The issues now dividing the parties revolve around the powers of ministers and the means by which the first and deputy first ministers will be chosen. Under present arrangements, ministers in the suspended power-sharing executive have considerable independence and, unless theirs is an issue that affects cross-community relations, can often pursue their own agendas without reference to the assembly as a whole. The DUP wants to make ministers more accountable and to be able to raise “petitions of concern” which will allow the assembly to vote on certain measures. This, say nationalists, is majority rule by the back door.
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These are fascinating topics for political professionals to mull over, but if the large issues of paramilitary weapons and the existence of the
IRA can be tackled, then they can hardly be presented as credible deal-breakers. They are matters for pragmatic compromise and using them to block progress would represent a catastrophic failure of political leadership and vision.
It will not be enough for the DUP to say that it has a mandate and to dig its heels in. All parties have electoral mandates. When the price of power is agreement, some items on any political agenda must be sacrificed so that others can be fulfilled.
The jury is still out on whether Sinn Fein and the DUP can close the gap in the coming weeks of negotiations, which commence on Tuesday in Stormont. It will not be easy to forgive them if they fail and the British and Irish governments should not continue to subsidise the deadlock.
A failure to reach agreement will be seen as a failure of the political system in Northern Ireland. It should lead to a dissolution of the assembly, the ending of pay to its members and the inauguration of an indefinite period of direct rule with the increasing involvement of the Irish government.
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That is not an attractive option for either party. It can only be hoped that the threat of it may help to focus their minds in the coming weeks.