Eking out his new policies was clearly a deliberate choice. The effect, however, seems to have been both confusing and boring. It is hardly surprising that the party has made so very little impression. Nor is it entirely surprising that the Conservatives are doing so badly despite the public’s loss of faith in the government’s trustworthiness and its competence. According to the latest YouGov poll, Mr Howard’s Conservatives are now less popular than a year ago when they were led by Iain Duncan Smith. Then they had the support of 37% of voters; now they are level-pegging with Labour on 34%.
What is wrong with the Tories? This poor timing suggests a lack of conviction and a lack of confidence both in themselves and in the public’s response to them. It could be argued that they have been letting things out slowly because they don’t dare to come out with their radical plans all at once. It is alarming enough to announce several thousand job cuts in the civil service; it might be scarier still to announce root-and-branch plans for redeploying whole departments and axeing entire initiatives right across the public services. Tory politicians cringe at the cry of cuts, let alone the old Tory mantra of tax cuts to ease the burden of the state. It is not that the Conservatives lack a message; it is that they feel it is a message that dare not speak its name. Perhaps they are still suffering from a loss of nerve.
They are unquestionably suffering from a lack of political touch. Mr Howard’s speech on political correctness and the effects of human rights legislation made some good points, but it was unlikely to catch the attention of floating voters or unsettle the fixed ideas of the liberal establishment. To attack political correctness head-on is to miss an important point, which is not obvious to Conservatives who have little experience of public services. Political correctness is actually considered a virtue by many in those services, which are such a huge Labour constituency. It is only the right of centre that considers political correctness self-evidently a bad thing; others who hear it attacked will stop listening.
Then out of the blue comes a row between Mr Howard and President Bush over the war in Iraq. Mr Howard’s criticisms of the prime minister earlier this year so fired up the White House that it told the leader of the opposition he was no longer a welcome visitor there. Yesterday this prompted Mr Howard to issue a statement which effectively told the Americans to get lost. Mr Howard is no doubt calculating that some distance from George W Bush is no bad thing while Mr Blair remains locked in an embrace with the president. Still, a row between a right-wing president supporting a left-of-centre leader against a right-wing opposition leader is not an everyday event.
The Conservatives’ position might seem to be so bleak that with this opportunism they are grasping at straws. The great luxury, however, of a desperate position is that you have little to lose. When all else fails try sincerity, even in politics. Instead of concealing their hand, or trying to steal new Labour’s clothes, the Conservatives need to say what they believe. A lot of people might actually notice and enough of them might remember it some time in the future, if ever they are looking for a genuine alternative to the Labour monolith.