ENJOY IT, one more time. Tournaments, like Joey Barton’s Twitter oeuvre, or Yakubu, were better when they were slimmer.
The World Cup has not produced a great finals since expanding to 32 teams (in 1998) and the Champions League is a further example of how more can mean less when you inflate competitions with extra games.
The European championship, pure, condensed, simple, in a 16-team format, has long been a consistent pleasure.
In 2016, though, the Euros will swell from 16 sides to 24. It is inevitable that quality control and, in particular, the intensity of the group stage (the Euros’ biggest advantage over World Cups) will be compromised. Still, at least Scotland (at some point during the rest of my lifetime) might qualify.
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Euro 2008 was more thrilling than the World Cups before and after. England, of course, were back at home, still pondering where to shove Steve McClaren’s brolly. England’s last kick at the European championship? A penalty by Darius Vassell, saved by Ricardo, as Portugal eliminated them from Euro 2004 in a shootout. Ashley Cole, Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and John Terry are the only survivors of that squad.
Indeed, the 23 players Roy Hodgson is taking to Poland and Ukraine contain only nine players from Fabio Capello’s 2010 World Cup squad. While this group might be inferior in terms of raw talent they are markedly fresher, with the third-lowest average age at Euro 2012 (26 years five months) after Germany (24 years 11 months) and Poland (25 years seven months). This squad also appear more balanced, in better physical shape — and as the smiles and informality at a golf day and barbecue with the media on Wednesday revealed — undoubtedly a happier, more open camp than in 2010.
Not being among the tournament favourites helps, psychologically. When you have won only four finals games outside your own country in the entire 52-year history of the Euros, humility is sensible. It gives Hodgson’s squad the chance to exceed expectations rather than be burdened by them and if the injuries and lack of preparation time mean that the best Hodgson can do is focus on his considerable organisation skills and turn England into a version of his best Fulham side, that is no bad thing.
Right now, England are Fulham, in ranking terms: a top-eight side but not a top-four one and an outfit who will get more out of concentrating on their efforts and attributes as an ensemble than individually. Roy’s Fulham, not by being the most dazzling stars, but through being the most driven and harmonious team, reached a European final.
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Germany, old foes with young faces, are just behind Spain with the bookmakers but just ahead, for me, as favourites to lift the title. Punters’ doubts stem from Bayern Munich’s Champions League final defeat by Chelsea and the fear it might have traumatised the Bayern Munich players, as many as seven of whom could be in Joachim Löw’s starting line-up. Defeats by France and Switzerland in friendlies have also raised questions.
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But — well, let’s trot out a cliché, because it’s true — tournaments seem to improve the Germans while diminishing other teams. They reached the Euro 2008 final with a far less gifted group than Löw’s 23. The boys who made the mannschaft so vibrant in South Africa are still there but to Mesut Ozil, Thomas Müller, Bastian Schweinsteiger & Co, Löw has added even more young talent. Mario Gotze, aka The German Messi, powered Borussia Dortmund to two Bundesliga titles before his 20th birthday (which is today) and his performances on the right or middle of a line supporting the striker will be compelling. Mats Hummels, Gotze’s Dortmund teammate, will compete with Per Mertesacker, Jerome Boateng and Holger Badstuber for a place in central defence and, at 23, is another serious prospect.
Andre Schurrle, Marco Reus, Lars Bender and Ilkay Gündogan are yet more of Germany’s special kindergarten crop. Löw’s squad are the youngest to appear at a European championship. Their weakness might be defending and their opening game, on Saturday against Portugal, is viewed nervously at home with Germans shaken by how easily their side leaked goals in that loss to Switzerland. The 5-3 scoreline was Germany’s worst against their neighbours since 1908.
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Cristiano Ronaldo, Euro 2012’s biggest individual star, is looking for a great tournament to cement his status. All players who aspire to be legends need one; though, admittedly, old self-styled CR7 won’t exactly suffer a crisis of confidence if his Euros are a squib.
With Nani, Joao Moutinho and Pepe perhaps the only other top players in Paulo Bento’s squad (which made the playoffs on goal difference ahead of Norway in qualification) too much seems to be riding on Ronaldo for Portugal to be contenders but they are dangerous floaters in a group that also contains the Danes and the Dutch.
After a moderate pair of opening games, Saturday — when Holland meet Denmark in Kharkiv, then Germany face Portugal in Lviv — should be when the tournament ignites.
Spain v Italy and Ireland v Croatia follow on the Sunday, then on Monday it’s England v France. Such a concentration of epic games is the hallmark of the 16-team Euros and why the format should be cherished.
Holland, more savvy than the Germans though with the same dynamic of great attacking options and more mediocre defensive ones, will challenge. But their key player, Wesley Sneijder, is not in his 2010 form, when the Dutch reached the World Cup final.
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Spain or Italy could be Germany’s greatest threat. The Spanish will suffer from David Villa’s absence and Fernando Torres’ reduced effectiveness as a scorer; much rests on Fernando Llorente. Fatigue could be a factor for Xavi, Andres Iniesta and the other Barcelona players. Carles Puyol, injured like Villa, is another big loss. Still, as David Moyes noted last week, anybody who beats the Spanish will have to play at the very limit of their capabilities.
Italy do not lack personality — with Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli in attack — though previous editions of the azzurri have had more star quality. Their coach, Cesare Prandelli, has a track record of overachieving, however, and has been dealing manfully with the fallout from the latest match-fixing crisis. Italy’s defensive record was the best in qualification and their tournament aspirations depend on caution and clean sheets.
The Republic of Ireland, in with the Spanish, the Italians and a rejuvenated Croatia, will also have a game plan based on making themselves hard to score against.
Hotel prices, travel problems, racism ... Ukraine hasn’t recommended itself to England fans but the Irish supporters will travel to Poland in great numbers. In the stands, bars and squares they’ll provide spectacle and irreverence: Germany and their band of young attackers and creators are likeliest to supply those on the pitch.