The landslide victory of the Puea Thai party is an impressive personal victory for its leader, Yingluck Shinawatra, a resounding endorsement of democracy in this turbulent nation and a devastating indictment of the incumbent Democratic Party’s failure to shake off its image as an aloof, establishment party more at home with Western bankers than Thai villagers.
Exit polls suggest that Puea Thai won at least 260 of the 500 parliamentary seats. Its convincing win, after a campaign largely fair and free, gives the populist party, identified by its supporters’ red shirts, the chance to form a government on its own. It also paves the way for Ms Yingluck, a 44-year-old businesswoman with no previous political experience, to become the first woman prime minister of a strategic country that is now the second-largest economy in South-East Asia. Thailand joins a growing list of fast developing or established economies headed by women.
Her victory, however, is likely to churn up rather than smooth Thailand’s divisive politics. She is the sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, the controversial billionaire former prime minister, who was convicted of corruption in absentia and is now living in exile in Dubai. He remains wildly popular among the rural poor, whose cause he championed with extravagant populist policies, but is anathema to the generals, the Thai business elite and the royalist establishment. The military, with the tacit approval of the royal palace, staged a coup in 2006 to force him out of office. Since then power has swung back and forth between his red-shirt supporters and the yellow-shirted Democrats. Both sides have taken to the streets, occupying key government buildings and blockading the main airports to force out their hated rivals.
There is therefore palpable nervousness that the generals, extremely sensitive to any loss of face, will not accept this rebuff, all the more pointed because Mr Thaksin unwisely declared during the campaign that his sister was his “clone” and made clear his intention to return home if and when a Puea Thai government passes an amnesty for those convicted on political charges. There is also the strong possibility that the courts, which since the 2006 coup have removed two prime ministers, disbanded six parties, jailed three election commissioners and banned more than 250 politicians, will intervene. Under the constitution, if any party member is convicted of election fraud, the entire party executive is banned for five years. Puea Thai’s opponents are already preparing their challenge.
The unexpected size of Ms Yingluck’s victory, however, is likely to discourage any attempt to overturn the result by force. The military know that the uproar on Bangkok’s streets could plunge Thailand into virtual civil war were they to quash the voters’ verdict. They would be condemned in every Western capital. Thailand’s economy, heavily reliant on global tourism and international trade, would be hard hit. Even the business class, strongly supportive of the outgoing Prime Minister, the British-born and Eton-educated Abhisit Vejjajiva, has been reassured by Ms Yingluck’s disciplined campaign. It now hopes that her expensive promises of subsidies to the poor, improved health care and massive infrastructure investment will be tempered by the realism of power.
Advertisement
A Puea Thai government would be well advised to allay suspicions from the start. It should seek a compromise with the military. It should reassure bankers and investors that it will continue policies that brought Thailand through the global downturn. It should commit itself to a new search for peace in the turbulent southern Muslim provinces. It should not hurry to welcome Mr Thaksin home. Thailand has voted for change. Ms Yingluck must show that she has the authority, acumen and leadership to respond responsibly.