When Theresa May lost her majority last June everyone knew why: Labour had triggered a “youthquake” in support from younger voters that sent seismic tremors through British politics. Except it did not happen.
Research suggests that although turnout was up overall, this was not fuelled by younger voters flocking to support Jeremy Corbyn.
The perception that the nation’s youth was gripped by Corbynmania was fuelled by rallies, photo opportunities and a high-profile appearance at Glastonbury, where thousands chanted: “Oh Jeremy Corbyn.” The Oxford English Dictionary named “youthquake” as the word of the year, and Mrs May said that her election disappointment was the result of “concerns raised, particularly by young people”.
However, the British Election Study has cast doubt on the idea of a surge in young voters. “People have been much too hasty,” the research team said. “There was no surge in youth turnout at the 2017 election.”
They found that in the 2015 election, when the Tories won a surprise majority under David Cameron, and the 2017 election, when Mrs May lost it, older people were much more likely to vote. There was little change over the two years. Where there was an increase in turnout it was more pronounced among those aged 30 to 40, rather than those in their late teens and early twenties supposedly mobilised by Labour. The margin of error even suggests that turnout for voters aged 18 and 19 may have been lower in 2017 than in 2015. Where there was an age-based surge it was in support of the Conservatives: those aged over 60 were more likely to vote Tory in 2017 than in 2015.