Labour’s mauling in May won’t claim its king

This psephological bounty is thanks to the convergence of four and five-year political cycles, which won’t be repeated for at least two decades. It is, however, a mere appetiser to the main course: the epoch-defining EU referendum on June 23.

David Cameron’s biggest worry is that local campaigning, coupled with Labour’s civil war, will distract from making the case to remain in the EU. Labour will scrutinise the results most closely for indications of how it’s doing in national politics. Following a general election defeat, the main opposition party almost always picks up in contests such as these. Ed Miliband’s Labour did well in the council elections four years ago, with a national equivalent vote share of 39% to the Tories’ 22%. It has no expectations of gains this time. Our local election gurus, Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings, expect the party to lose at least 150 councillors.

Many Labour MPs would welcome a heavy defeat, including a hammering into third place in Scotland, behind the Tories, if it sparked concerted efforts to remove Jeremy Corbyn as leader. But this is more in hope than expectation. There is no agreed candidate to replace Corbyn and no plan as to how it could be done, given that the final choice would still be made by the electorate of members and supporters that installed him. With the harder-line and more competent John McDonell lining himself up as a successor, they agree with Alastair Campbell that Corbyn is “unelectable but irremovable”.

Corbyn is more damaged than ever thanks to his halting response to the anti-semitism crisis that erupted in the party last week. The leader denied there was a crisis and suggested that his critics were just worried by his success in building up the party’s grassroots. They have taken this as a deliberate threat that they will be bent to the will of the activists backing him.

Corbyn suspended Naz Shah and Ken Livingstone from the party for their comments about Israel and Zionism too late to head off internal acrimony. Unusually, Labour’s HQ was among those pointing the finger of blame at the leader’s office. George Galloway, the former Labour MP and current Respect party candidate for London mayor, returned fire with a video warning that “the putsch against” his old friend Jeremy had begun.

There is considerable sympathy for Shah herself, including from Conservatives, not least because she rid the Commons of Galloway by defeating him in Bradford in 2015. She sent out her offensive tweets before she became an MP and has apologised in the chamber for them. Livingstone, far from being repentant, boasts that he has been saying the same thing for 30 years. He surely has. In common with most of my colleagues, I have been called “a Nazi” by him on occasion. The two-term London mayor has decades of form, viewing contemporary politics through his warped interpretation of the Second World War.

Livingstone has also been a Corbynite point man on Labour’s national executive committee. Will that same NEC be willing to reinstate Shah and expel Livingstone when it gets round to considering the ways they have brought the party into disrepute?

Many Labour MPs say they are ashamed and appalled by the arrogance of Corbyn and his faction, whose self-belief does not admit the possibility they might be mistaken. Sadiq Khan, who hopes to be London’s second Labour mayor by the end of this week, rapidly dissociated himself from the party leadership and condemned Livingstone. So it will be harder for Corbyn to take comfort if, as still seems likely, Labour recaptures City Hall.

The two main parties maintain that Thursday’s elections are proof of their commitment to the devolution of power. Yet the political structures have usually been imposed by central government, sometimes in defiance of local public opinion.

In championing initiatives such as the “northern powerhouse”, George Osborne can see the advantage of a “single point of accountability, someone to carry the can”. In practice, he won’t let go of the purse strings. A recent study by Cardiff University found that more than 80% of revenues in Wales are raised by central government. In England that figure rises above 90%. When funding is devolved it often means less money coming in overall.

The National Audit Office pointed out last week that “the government has decided not to set out a clear statement of what it is trying to achieve” by English devolution. Labour created many of the devolved institutions, yet Corbyn’s local government spokesman, Jon Trickett, criticises the “unnecessary complexity” of Tory schemes, while those on the Blairite wing, such as Tristram Hunt and Alison McGovern, can’t agree on whether there should be an English parliament.

Voters have noticed that Britain is still one of the most centralised countries in the western world. So we turn out in smaller numbers for local polls than for general elections. Nine out of 10 voters can’t name their police and crime commissioner. Alan Billings, standing for re-election in South Yorkshire, is probably the exception after his swift suspension of his chief constable after the Hillsborough inquest.

Cameron will do his civic duty at the ballot box on Thursday but the main business of his day will be meeting the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, the latest ally expected to recommend that Britain remains in the EU. These are momentous times, but the vote on May 5 is unlikely to start a revolution or end an empire.

@adamboultonSky