Labour could achieve its lowest share of the vote since devolution and may be forced into forming a coalition government, possibly with the Liberal Democrats.
As party workers begin a frantic four days of canvassing, Roger Scully, professor of political science at the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, said Labour faced a battering at the ballot box.
“A YouGov poll in late April 2011 put Labour on 45% for the constituency vote and 41% for the list vote. They are now 12 percentage points lower on both ballots than at this stage in the electoral cycle before the last assembly election,” he said.
“Were Labour’s election performance to fall some way below their poll rating — which it has normally done in recent years — then it could be under threat of achieving their worst ever vote share in an assembly election.”
Labour and its leader Carwyn Jones will focus on employment and the economy as they seek to turn the tide. During a tour of crucial battlegrounds, Jones will say: “Unlike every other party, we are not fighting for a coalition, we are fighting to win.
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“It might be good enough for the Tories and Ukip to cuddle up to one another on TV studio sofas, it might be good enough for Plaid Cymru candidates to float Tory deals in hustings and on Twitter. But it is not good enough for Welsh Labour.”
But with opinion polls suggesting his party will win 28 of the 60 assembly seats, the Lib Dems — who are predicted to win two — could be in a strong position to forge a coalition.
Following the near wipeout suffered by her party at last year’s general election after five years in coalition with the Tories, Kirsty Williams, the Welsh Lib Dem leader, has been cautious about any deal.
“Will I rule my party out of any future coalitions in Wales? No, I will not,” Williams has said. “But lessons must be learnt.”
A further sign that a coalition may be needed came yesterday in a letter in the Western Mail newspaper by six leading Labour-leaning academics who urged voters to give their second vote to another party such as Plaid Cymru.
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The letter said that in constituencies where Labour does well it “makes sense” for voters to “aid a progressive party like Plaid”, and “to block any party that trades in fear”.
Key constituencies include Cardiff Central, Llanelli and Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, where there may be only a few hundred votes between first and second.
Labour is tipped to lose the first two to the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru respectively, and the Tories to succumb in the third to Plaid Cymru. Polls suggest greater change in the regional ballots with Ukip forecast to win seven seats, the Tories to fall from eight to five, and the Lib Dems from four to zero.
In the race for votes, Andrew Davies, the Welsh Conservatives’ leader, will tour 15 constituencies on Tuesday and Wednesday. Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru, which polls suggest may finish second place, will concentrate on her Rhondda constituency.