Boris Johnson’s unravelling is not just the limitations of the man and all the warnings of his unfit for office state coming true, but we may also be reaching the outer limits of 12 years of Tory rule. Like sleaze in the Nineties, Johnson is the product of 12 years of Tory government; breaking the rules, out of ideas and excuses, and now running out of time.
History will surely praise the profound and transformative policies adopted at pace in a time of Covid; for furlough and the rapid creation and successful roll out of the vaccine. Yet as we close 2021 and mark two years since its victory, the government and Johnson’s performance in particular, is undermined by self-harm, reckless behaviour and Johnson’s loose relationship with the truth.
The unprecedented nature of the global pandemic and its profound impact on life as we know it is an inescapable feature of the Johnson term of office. It has smothered government, dominated British politics and exposed the shocking under-investment from austerity, which continues to throttle local authority budgets and critical public services in the seats Johnson won in 2019.
Two years ago, I was reeling from my election defeat after putting up as strong a fight as physically and politically possible against overwhelming national political headwinds. The former bellwether seat of Bury North became the most marginal seat in England. Now Johnson is down, Starmer is up, Labour leading, Tories tanking, but hold on, this isn’t me just hoping to see it all fall over as you’d expect: take a closer look.
Key to the government’s central proposition is levelling up; a policy, at its heart, which recognises that the rising tide no longer lifts all boats; that regional inequalities, quality of life, standards of living, the fulfilment of potential or everyday life, across the country are not equal opportunity experiences.
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A government reshuffle mid-year was seen by many as choosing the team to go into the next election, with chief fixer, Michael Gove being asked to lead the newly created levelling up department.
But the challenge for the government for 2022 and beyond will be whether it can record experiences in the improvement of everyday life on their watch and not simply point at capital projects or being judged on promises that then fall well short of what was promised. The sense is that life for a great many will not have improved since 2019 with flagship promises now just flagging.
April ’22 will bring with it new higher rates of tax for working people. This extraordinary tax weight on ordinary income was touted as a necessary new injection of cash to advance our NHS. Yet surely now will only just about give vital public services a chance of running to stand still.
Any claim to have sorted social care bears no resemblance to the experiences of life in a nursing home, or of a loved one on a hospital ward or those sitting waiting for their 15 minute home-care visit from a key worker we clapped for but is still only paid for a handful of minutes in every working hour.
We are long past the moment when 24 hour news changed politics but now it seems we’re heading for 24 hour polling: a political stock market ticker on events as they unfold, ups and downs in real time on the prospects of our political leaders.
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A four point lead for the Labour Party doubled in a few short hours last week as the country dialled Johnson down. We cannot expect a general election whilst the Tories are nosediving but nor should Labour expect that even a double digit polling lead can give comfort once an election campaign is in full flight. And so Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party must double the lead again and maintain it with more than just government own-goals.
In recent interviews Starmer has talked effusively of his love for football. He speaks of being on the field with a ruthless winning streak and that he always plays to win; that he’s not happy with simply getting a game or losing well. This emotionally, heartfelt side to Starmer is a new and welcome revelation.
Starmer’s latest reshuffle finished earlier business. In the spring he had been hampered by haggling with his deputy but there was no such consternation this time as he prepares to further appeal to a country in pragmatic mood with a top team that says what matters is what works and that he is leading a credible alternative government.
The marginal seat test, a political leader’s ability to appeal to those voters who switch between elections, remains one Starmer and his new shadow cabinet are yet to pass. The polls are uncannily accurate for those of us back on the doorstep listening to voters. Love for Johnson is disappearing, in some cases it is turning to loathing and he is dismissed as having served his purpose for them.
From the Labour Party, the public want an emotional connection, not an explanation. They want a single vision, not a single issue and once assured, they must be inspired. For Starmer he gives assurance but he must inspire voters like Johnson used to if he is to win and not just lose well.
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James Frith is former MP for Bury North