The best gauge of the impact of Kieren Fallon’s comeback is the flurry of special bets being touted by bookmakers. About the only thing missing is a price about the former champion jockey joining Richard Dunwoody on the cast of Strictly Come Dancing.
More seriously, these novelty markets are always worth a second glance. Bookmakers often make the odd rick - and there’s much to recommend backing Fallon at evens with Ladbrokes to land a group one race in Britain before the season closes.
That price looks way too big. Fallon could even deliver at the first attempt when he rides the favourite, High Standing, in the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock on Saturday.
There’s no telling how far High Standing can go. He has toyed with admittedly lesser opposition on each of his four starts this term, and there’s every chance he can maintain his upward curve on Saturday.
Looking further ahead, Fallon has spent much educational time aboard Seta on the Newmarket gallops of late. And with Seta’s trainer, Luca Cumani, having made overtures towards retaining Fallon next season, Fallon is likely to be aboard when Seta steps up to group one company – as she seems certain to do after her runaway debut triumph last month.
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Given her reputation, Seta might well start at odds-on when she tackles something like the Fillies’ Mile at Ascot later this month. That alone makes Ladbrokes’ even-money bet something to get stuck into.
Seta aside, there will be plenty of alternative opportunities for Fallon to ride that group one winner. Ten such races remain to be run in Britain, and we have reached the stage in the season when the top jockeys are racking up suspensions.
With Fallon lurking as the super-sub par excellence, he will not be short of chances. It greatly helps his cause that he has no ties to any one stable yet retains the goodwill of the majority of Newmarket’s finest.
Whether that remains true of Aidan O’Brien’s yard remains to be seen. Fallon spent three turbulent years at Ballydoyle, whose proprietors, John Magnier et al, stood by Fallon throughout the criminal ordeal that culminated when Fallon was deemed to have “no case to answer” in December 2007.
Fallon’s expensive legal defence was orchestrated by those Ballydoyle patrons. They were distinctly unamused to learn, immediately afterwards, that Fallon had failed a second drugs test in France that earned him the 18-month suspension from which he now returns.
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In racing, however, you can never say never. It seemed highly unlikely that Mick Kinane would don the Ballydoyle silks when his contract was terminated nine years ago, yet he has. So, too, has Jamie Spencer, whose one-year stint at Ballydoyle ended abruptly at the end of 2004.
Whatever transpires between the two parties, Fallon’s comeback has gained such widespread support that a first group one triumph in Britain is only a matter of time. Expect it to happen sooner rather than later.