Theresa May called this election because she thought there was no doubt about the result: a Tory landslide, giving her a huge majority before Brexit. She may still get the landslide but the path has been anything but straightforward. The disaster over her manifesto put the “grey vote” in jeopardy, while Labour has gone all out for young voters. While Mrs May insisted that it was a Brexit election, she wanted that to mean voters focusing on the contrast between her and Jeremy Corbyn. Wooden performances and a U-turn meant that negative perceptions about her grew. Here is a guide to the key demographics:
Students
Can young people, and students in particular, make a difference? Under Conservative plans, student fees would rise further after the election, with Theresa May putting emphasis on new technical qualifications for young adults.
Labour is promising to scrap tuition fees, including for students starting in September. This has been criticised by both left and right as regressive, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies said the manifesto in general was unaffordable. However, it appears popular: 45 per cent of people think that the government should fund most of the cost of university education through taxation, rising to 57 per cent among 18 to 24-year-olds.
In a recent article for the Political Studies Association blog, Ben Bowman, from Bath University, predicted that the student vote would be particularly critical in Edinburgh South, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Sheffield Hallam, Chester, Wolverhampton South West, Norwich South, Ilford North, Bristol West, Brentford & Isleworth, and Ealing Central & Acton.
However, a poll commissioned by the Higher Education Policy Institute this month suggested that only 25 per cent of students planned to vote in their “university constituency” rather than their home address, indicating that there may be issues over where they are registered to vote.
Key constituency: Norwich South, 4am
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Older voters
There are 94 constituencies with majorities under 5,000 where older people are likely to form a majority of voters. These include Clacton in Essex, where older people make up 69 per cent of the vote; New Forest West (68.1 per cent); North Norfolk (67.9 per cent); and West Dorset (66.3 per cent).
The Conservative manifesto marked a radical shift from its predecessors and sought a mandate to make tough decisions on pensions and reduce benefits and entitlements for the “grey voters”. Most Conservative candidates were angered by the manifesto, saying it hurt them among existing supporters, but most believed they could have talked round older constituents and thought the U-turn by Mrs May was unnecessary.
Key constituency:
West Dorset, 5am
Tory Remainer
This could have been the election where Conservative-supporting Remain voters jumped ship to the Liberal Democrats, who promised a second referendum. This does not appear likely to happen in substantial numbers and those pushing a Remain prospectus have floundered in this election.
The key seats when assessing the impact of pro-Remain campaigns will be Twickenham, where Sir Vince Cable is trying to make a comeback, Richmond Park, Kingston & Surbiton, Battersea, Vauxhall, Bath and Cheltenham.
Key constituency: Kingston & Surbiton, 5am
Labour Leaver
Former Labour supporters who voted Leave could determine whether Mrs May does merely well or gets a landslide. The Conservatives’ best hopes of gains beyond the usual marginal battlegrounds come in Labour-held marginals with a large 2015 Ukip vote, most of which will go back to the Tories. These seats are mainly in the Midlands or the north of England.
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Leave voters are overwhelmingly more likely to support the Conservatives, by a margin of more than two to one. They are twice as likely as Remain voters to hold a negative opinion about Jeremy Corbyn and are concerned about his views on the IRA. Many of these seats are traditionally tribally Labour but often the voters are socially conservative, meaning their values could chime more with those of Mrs May.
According to Matthew Goodwin, the academic, the key seats are Dudley North, Scunthorpe, Blackpool South, Wakefield and Mansfield.
Key constituency: Blackpool South, 4.30am