THE resignation of taoiseach Enda Kenny could pave the way for a “grand coalition” between the two civil-war parties, according to senior Fianna Fail figures.
Mary O’Rourke, a former minister, is among party members who say Kenny must step down as leader of Fine Gael for there to be any prospect of the two parties entering government.
“I know the numbers dictate that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail is the only stable option, but Enda Kenny would have to go,” said O’Rourke.
“It doesn’t matter if [he] runs around the place and gets all those votes [for taoiseach this Thursday]; the people don’t want him. That was clear in the way people voted. We could not be responsible for returning Enda Kenny as taoiseach. Fianna Fail does not want to go in with Fine Gael, but it might be more palatable if he was gone.”
Speaking about the prospects of a coalition with Fine Gael, a senior Fianna Fail TD said: “I couldn’t support Enda Kenny as taoiseach, you would have to look at a change there.” Many Fianna Fail TDs continued to publicly oppose a coalition with Fine Gael under any circumstances last week, but Marc MacSharry, a newly elected Sligo-Leitrim TD, became one of the first to break ranks and say his party should explore the option of an equal partnership.
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“My personal view is Fianna Fail could agree to enter government [with Fine Gael] on an equal footing with a rotating taoiseach,” said MacSharry.
“My view is a four-year commitment to govern — with neither party being in a position to dissolve the Dail without the agreement of the other — is essential to good and stable government for the people. We should do it.”
Leo Varadkar, the health minister, has said there is no point forming a government that would only survive for two years.
“A government that can be brought down at any minute is not an effective one,” he said. “Civil servants and vested interests will just wait you out if they don’t think you’ll be around for much longer. The government needs to be stable. It should have a decent prospect of lasting the five years. The big issues, like health, housing and restoring living standards, won’t be resolved in 18 to 24 months. More time is needed.”
Varadkar said any government formation would also need to reflect Fine Gael’s priorities. “We won’t cling to power and are not interested in office for the sake of it,” he said.
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While a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition would be more likely to continue in government for five years than any minority administration, Varadkar said he was opposed to joining with the smaller party. “I don’t think it’s a good idea, [due to] lack of trust, and it could open the door to a Sinn Fein-led opposition,” he said.
Senior Fine Gael sources last week said that, in any negotiations over a minority government, it would demand guaranteed support from Fianna Fail for at least two budgets. “Governments can only collapse on two things; finance and confidence motions,” said one Fine Gael minister. “There can only be two confidence motions a year, so if we have the guaranteed support on a budget, we just have to get through a maximum of two confidence motions.”
Many in Fine Gael believe a minority government on the current Dail arithmetic would be unstable, and that coalition with Fianna Fail is the only alternative to a fresh general election.
Most Fianna Fail deputies continue to publicly reject this. “I have very little in common with [Fine Gael] and it has nothing to do with history,” said a senior Fianna Fail source.
“I think that Kenny is damaged irreparably from a public perception point of view. They don’t like him, and they don’t think he is a capable leader. I don’t have any confidence in him myself and couldn’t support him as taoiseach.”
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MacSharry made no reference to Kenny but said Fianna Fail should not support a minority Fine Gael government.”
The leadership shown by Micheál Martin outlining the necessity for Dail reform as a prerequisite to entering government has set the scene for new politics where the equal mandate of all 158 TDs is respected and parliament is not subservient to the government of the day,” he said.
“A representative Programme for Government can and must be agreed, and clearly homelessness, health, unemployment and the debacle of Irish Water must be dealt with.”