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Judgment day

Vogts must go if Scotland miss the Euro 2004 playoffs, but winning in Germany would change everything. By Douglas Alexander

Next summer, it will be six long years since Craig Brown's team competed at France 98. No wonder the nation aches for an invite to Euro 2004 in Portugal.

Our astonishing ability to reach World Cup finals explains why the current separation from such tournaments has provoked a prolonged bout of introspection. Scotland qualified for five consecutive finals from 1974 to 1990, and there was creditable involvement at the European championships of 1992 and 1996. Halcyon days in which we never had to wait longer than four years for another opportunity to fail in the first phase.

The current six-year stretch is starting to feel like a sentence. A straightforward qualifying group welcomed Berti Vogts as he succeeded Brown in March 2002, and the simple truth which was stated then, still remains. Even rebuilding — Vogts has used 49 players thus far — Scotland should be able to finish above Iceland, Lithuania and the Faroe Islands and reach November's qualification playoffs. Anything less and the SFA's experiment with Vogts will have failed. He should be dismissed, early and expensively, to give another manager a chance at reviving our hopes. It's been a bumpy ride on Berti's bandwagon. A 2-2 draw in the Faroes saw Scotland hit their lowest point of 130 years in international football, although the 1-0 defeat by Lithuania in bitterly cold Kaunas last April was another strong contender.

Vogts' Scotland have also failed to impress in a string of friendlies, but the saving grace is that two victories over Iceland and a home draw with Germany have kept us in contention.

Often it has seemed that failure to reach the playoffs might be a mercy killing in that they promise nothing more than further humiliation. Yet the draw with Germany at Hampden in June, was a reminder that Scotland can still prosper when cast in the role of underdogs.

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There is, of course, a faint hope of automatic qualification as group winners, if Vogts can contrive an unlikely but sweet success for his adopted nation over Germany in Dortmund's Westfalenstadion on September 10.

Much will hinge on the outcome of imminent talks with Paul Lambert, who is reconsidering retirement from international football, and whether Barry Ferguson's summer operation on a niggling pelvic problem will improve his attendance record.

Vogts needs a playoff place at least to buy himself enough time to see through his radical overhaul of the national team. Rainer Bonhof, his trusted lieutenant, is nurturing a promising group at under-21 level, who could be slowly introduced in the build-up to next summer's tournament if Scotland can squeeze into the 16 teams who will compete.

As autumn turns to winter we should discover whether Vogts will see another season as Scotland's manager or fall with the leaves.