The refusal to even consider dropping Jonny Wilkinson indicates that England are afraid to venture out of their depth. In terms of style, Brian Ashton may talk about the imperative of England "moving on" (why must we insist on these rhetorical shades of Tony Blair?) from the World Cup but the reality is that the 2007 runners-up are playing it safe rather than being bold enough to ride the wave into the future. Instead of paddling out to ride those waves by picking the form fly-half and the next potential English superstar, Danny Cipriani, we are still splashing around in the shallows of limited ambition.
Safe, perhaps, against the weakest of the Six Nations sides this afternoon but this team seems in no great hurry to take a positive, lunging step forward. It seems to be the grim story of the reaction to the 2003 World Cup being replayed, this time with the core of the 2007 grafters. That tale ended badly, as will this one if Ashton does not accept that his thinking is so retrospective that it is not even the future he is refusing to countenance, but the present.
If England were peering over the horizon towards 2011 the Wasps fly-half would be a racing certainty for inclusion; if today's form was the sole criteria he would still shade a debate with Charlie Hodgson. Either way Wilkinson would not feature in the starting lineup. But this team selection, as was the last postWorld Cup one, is dominated by the past and the word "experience" but it is an even more distant past than the one that led Andy Robinson towards what became an inevitable dismissal.
As such, the unassailable position of Wilkinson symbol-ises the problem even more than the stifling presence of an out of form Mark Regan. Wilkinson's teammate at Newcastle, Toby Flood, explained away the unusual flak that had been aimed at his colleague: "When you set the bar as high as he's set it in the past, you put yourself in the firing line in the press . . ."
So, cleverly, the debate has been moved away from the subject of whether he should be selected ahead of his young rival. Flood and Phil Vickery later in the week made the issue one of the old versus the new Jonny. It is an utter irrelevance yet it has set the tone of the past four years; as if we remain enthralled by the old echoes of Wilkinson's wonderful feats.
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The people's pivot may have been injured and understandably debilitated by the cruel sequence of those injuries but the fact is he has not been the genuine article for four long years. That is an eternity in sport and nobody other than Wilkinson would have escaped a more detailed examination of his credentials. Until Saturday, that is, when his form was analysed no more or less than an experienced international's form should be.
He played well in the first 60 minutes, said his ultra defensive head coach, but so he should have done when the pack were dominant. The more pertinent question is what happened to Wilkinson when the game started to slip away and the control was lost? The answer is that he looked as headless as the next man in line. The wild miss-pass that he threw to Cipriani had the hallmark of panic, as did his justification of the pass in his ghosted newspaper column in which he described it as a win-win option, just badly executed. Wilkinson, Ashton and England are looking in the mirror and fantasizing. The reality is too awkward to admit.
England did not lose to Wales because of six minutes of madness - a catchy enough phrase that is easy to remember and designed for repetition, as it duly was last week. They lost because throughout the first half at Twick-enham, when the pack was rampant, the team failed to create any coherent attacking back play from the set-pieces and put Wales away. Place the Welsh backs behind the English pack and ask yourself whether the score would have read 16-6 at half-time?
It should have been game over and it probably would have been if Cipriani had started at Twick-enham. He has the one weapon Wilkinson lacks, which can open the field for runners of set-pieces - pace. Cipriani's speed has torn apart some of the best teams in England and Europe this season. Unlike Wilkinson, he is comfortable on the gain line and loves nothing more than to sprint across the rushing line of defence and tease out a weak spot. If the defence react, his soft hands will invariably find the gap left by the tackler who has been spooked by the fly-half's speed. If the defence keeps its shape, his forked lightning change of pace will penetrate in the split second that it takes that defender to realise the error of his position.
Wilkinson, even in the very greatest of his days, never possessed this sort of pace, but he was able to make up for that by emulating the fabulous foot-work of Jason Robinson to such an extent that, standing flat on the gain line, he used the defensive line speed to create his own gear change and find space to exploit or thread with some sublime passing.
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Allied with his almost immaculate kicking ability and his ground breaking, not to mention opposition breaking, tackling, Wilkinson truly was quite some player. That Wilkinson would be the first name written down on my England team sheet, with Cipriani having to fully realise his potential to even challenge, but it is abundantly clear that particular Jonny Wilkinson disappeared long, long ago. The current model stands deep, stutters and makes life hard for the rest of his backs.
That Wilkinson also benefited from being a cog in an England team that was full of decision makers. Few observers will dispute that he played his very best rugby with the mature minds of Will Greenwood or Mike Catt stationed outside him. Without an elder statesman at inside-centre, he can appear as nervous as any 19-year-old, as he did when it all started going wrong against Wales.
Last Saturday was not the first time it had happened. He collapsed at Croke Park last season, by all accounts furious that England had gone onto the pitch without a sufficiently water-tight gameplan.
Ashton is at his best with a team that requires a slacker rein; the problem resurfaced during the World Cup in France and the manager compromised in order to reach the final but he knew, even before the final, that this was not the vision that he dreamed of making into reality.
Cipriani, in contrast, passed his test of mettle when his seniors, including the England captain, panicked in the Wasps defeat at Munster. Italy would have been the perfect introduction. As it is, the echoes of times past might be amplified in the ancient city but the voices will be siren.
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Wilkinson: Should he stay or should he go?
STEPHEN JONES It is not the finest recommendation, but Wilkinson should be in because of the upheavals caused to a team, already in transition, by injuries. We should admit that experience is everything, especially with so many new faces being drafted in. Whether or not there is a case purely on current form to include him is doubtful. The statistics of his tackling and kicking percentages cannot lie. He has also lost sharpness, authority and fl air when it comes to launching players around him. Brian Ashton told me at the start of the season that he would pick players and not icons. His philosophy may soon be put to the test
JEREMY GUSCOTT Wilkinson suits the way England play more than Cipriani. That way is straight, strong, hard and dependable - and that's Jonny. Cipriani needs to be bled-fed into the team like Jason Robinson, 20 minutes at a time, rather than rushed straight in. Even if Wilkinson fails to produce today, you have to remember that it's France next in Paris. Is that the game to blood Cipriani? No. But Jonny needs to improve fast. What disappoints me is that since Dawson and Greenwood have gone, he hasn't run the England backline in the way a guy of his experience should. He needs to command, and tell them what he wants
BUTCH JAMES I would keep Jonny. He does the basics brilliantly and adds a little extra, even if he doesn't have soaring pace. That's not essential if you can make a break - and he can. On the debit side, sometimes when it's on out wide, he holds onto the ball too long because he's trying to 'fi x' his defender. He's a great defensive fl y-half, but misses some tackles because he's too keen to get to his man, and overcommits. As for Cipriani, I would look for a spot for him somewhere - probably at No 15, because he can turn a game Butch James played in South Africa's 2007 World Cup-winning team
MICHAEL LYNAGH
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Jonny has enough credits in the bank to give himself a couple more chances. If you take him out of the equation the England backline looks very inexperienced. Cipriani is special, but it's better he gets a feel for international rugby somewhere like full-back, rather than fl y-half. The question mark over Jonny is whether he can run again now that the experienced players he had around him in 2003 have retired. He needs to improve his tactical kicking. It used to be sound, but now he doesn't seem to get the same advantage. Michael Lynagh played in Australia's 1991 World Cup-winning team