Some time between now and the World Cup final in Tokyo, England will lose. The trick for Eddie Jones is to make sure it’s not a knockout game in Japan. The pressure that builds as a team keeps winning is difficult to handle. If England head for Dublin on March 18 with a Grand Slam on the cards they will be on the verge of breaking New Zealand’s tier one record of 18 straight wins; given such circumstances, were England to freeze out any fear of failure and beat Ireland, you would suspect they had peaked too early.
Jones is not afraid of losing. Fear of failure, from the Australian’s perspective, is exclusively linked to losing when it matters most. There are more than two-and-a-half years until losing stops becoming an option. Outside the England camp, every game they win will be another where short-term headlines overwhelm the long-term priority. Who couldn’t be dazzled at the prospect of back-to-back Grand Slams and a world record run of wins?
Jones — that’s who. The cards have been on the table since the day he became England’s head coach. He has always said he has been brought in to make England the No 1 team in the world and, here, he uses his own definition – that means winning a World Cup, not beating France at Twickenham on February 4.
Of course England are desperate to target another title after too many barren years but the long-term picture Jones shares with his team enables the side not to panic under what is widely perceived as an injury crisis capable of inducing panic. Jones loves word games with the press but there are a few messages alongside the prime reason for his presence on these cold northern shores from which he never deviates.
Foremost among them is that injuries are not so much a threat as “an opportunity for competition within the squad”. Look at the match against France as the first step towards another Grand Slam and the number of English forwards out injured constitutes a threat. Consider it as another match on the road to Tokyo and losing does not seem quite so painful.
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“Injuries are not so much a threat as an opportunity for competition within the squad
Suddenly the double blow of Chris Robshaw’s 12-week injury and Joe Marler’s absence becomes one of those opportunities for Jones and the players who may perhaps be in line to get an unexpected chance.
In terms of the loosehead there is nothing “perhaps” about the fact that neither Mako Vunipola nor Marler will be in the 23 for the game against France and probably the match against Wales. The missing props open the way for Jones to develop depth in his squad. Matt Mullan is the favourite, having toured Australia, and did a decent job off the bench. While winning is not everything, it is a damn sight better than losing. England have built their success upon the traditional root strength of their set-piece. Solidity and experience are cornerstones that make the Wasp the leading contender to hold his own against the size and technique France combine on the tighthead.
Nathan Catt overtook Ellis Genge as third choice when the elite player squad was announced but with Marler out it would be no surprise to see Genge, the 21-year-old Leicester Tiger, on the bench, with a chance to prove he is ready. The loss of the two looseheads could be Genge and England’s gain.
So, too, could what appears, on the face of it, to be the loss of Robshaw, the former England captain who has done much to strengthen the spine of the team. Nobody could argue he is not worth his place in this team. Yet will he be worth his place in a year or two from now and will the man, whoever he is, that replaces him, add something “world class” to the position?
It is a question Jones wouldn’t have posed while Robshaw was playing as well as he has for England but the possibility of trying Maro Itoje on the blindside could prove irresistible. The Saracen has the body, brain and willpower to be an English great, at blindside or second row.
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A switch to the back row would enables Jones to take the opportunity of picking Joe Launchbury in Itoje’s No 4 jersey. The loss of Robshaw is a short-term setback but is potentially another one of those cases where a bitter blow turns into a blessing, not for the unfortunate individual but certainly the team, and in Jones’ world, the team always comes first.
It may be that England, without the massively influential Billy Vunipola, will see their winning run come to an end but Jones will be able to point at the list of absentees and say: “Well, what did you expect with these players missing?”
A defeat with half the pack out is not the end of the world. Teams learn from losing. So, too, coaches. Each game is a staging post for the Far East, the more wins the merrier, but this is a long- term project and in the broader scheme a short-term defeat is neither here nor there.