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It’s wrong to see a hung Parliament as dangerous

A hung Parliament is a rarity at Westminster but the norm in many other democracies. Our first-past-the-post electoral system tends to produce outright victors and that fosters a winner-takes-all political culture.

The five occasions in the past century when there has not been a clear-cut result have occurred when third parties have done well: after both 1910 elections, the Liberals depended on support from Labour and Irish MPs. The Tories under Baldwin were clearly the losers in the 1923 election but were still the largest party. He and Asquith, the leader of the third-placed Liberals, agreed to allow Labour their first chance at power. MacDonald’s Government lasted nine months before losing a confidence vote. The Tories then won a big victory. In 1929 Labour was the largest party and governed with Liberal support until imploding in the financial crisis of 1931.

In February 1974, the only recent case, Labour fell short of a majority. Heath, the Tory incumbent, tried to get the Liberals on board but failed. He resigned and Wilson returned to office, winning a wafer-thin majority the following October.

There are four key features: first, the incumbent Prime Minister remains in office until he accepts that his Government cannot survive in the Commons (1974) or is defeated there (1923-24); second, the monarch leaves the politicians to come up with a solution; third, minority administrations are more likely than coalitions and can survive for some time; and, fourth, the assumption is that this will be a temporary phase before a majority result at the next election.

Problems occur when minority administrations keep being elected under a majoritarian system, as in Canada where there have been fierce arguments about legitimacy.

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Proportional electoral systems usually mean hung parliaments. A less adversarial political culture accepts long talks to form coalitions as in Germany last month and Scotland and Wales in 2007. So Kenneth Clarke is wrong to say that a hung Parliament is dangerous. It may test familiar assumptions, but politicians have adapted and government has continued.