Shares have had a lacklustre start to the year, with the FTSE 100 index up from 5,413 at the end of 2009 to 5,455 by the close on Friday. Analysts are getting jittery, with many bracing themselves for a correction of about 10%. That won't derail the bull market (falls of 20% or more would be needed) but it is enough to unsettle the nerves.
Rising interest rates are the problem. Economists may be saying Bank rate is unlikely to go up until the second half of the year, but that's not what the gilt (government bond) market is telling us. There, yields have been rising (and prices falling) as investors expect higher borrowing costs.
And as investment bank Morgan Stanley points out, equity markets are generally negative in the 12 months after a trough in bond yields with corrections averaging 13%. If we take the trough as last March, when yields on benchmark 10-year bonds hit just 2.94% (compared with 4.09% last week), there could be quite a setback ahead.
Morgan Stanley stresses it isn't calling time on the bull market, it is saying brace for turbulence. Strategist Graham Secker said: "We do not equate the start of interest rate rises with the end of this bull market for equities. However, our more cautious view for 2010 reflects concerns over uncertainty and indigestion around higher rates."
Other signals point to a short-term setback for stocks. The Ned Davis Research sentiment index in America tracks bullish views and has generally been a good contrarian indicator, according to Charles Schwab. In other words, extreme optimism generally signals declines in share prices.
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Two days before the market low in March, a record seven out of 10 investors were "bearish" on stocks but that has dwindled to just 23% - a level last seen four years ago.
Then you have seasoned advisers such as Ben Yearsley at Hargreaves Lansdown taking profits from emerging markets and switching into a "defensive" fund such as Neil Woodford's Income fund.
The fund that is causing me most worry is my Henderson corporate bond fund, especially as the respected John Chatfeild-Roberts at Jupiter last week recommended taking money out of bonds and investing in Woodford.
There is little sign that my fund's performance is stalling: it is up 5% over the past month alone. I can also draw comfort from the fact that Chatfeild-Roberts is selling only higher-quality corporate bond funds, rather than higher-risk bond funds such as mine. However, a monthly return of 5% seems toppy and I am looking for opportunities to jump ship, possibly across the Atlantic.
A Nest of trouble
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Last week Yvette Cooper, the work and pensions secretary, unveiled the latest changes to the national employment savings scheme (Nest), calling it "the most radical change to workplace entitlements since the introduction of the national minimum wage".
Workers at businesses with more than 120,000 employees will be automatically enrolled into the pension scheme from 2012, with employers joining in stages until 2016 depending on their size.
Employer contributions will also be phased in, from 1% in 2012 to 2% in October 2016 and to the full 3% by 2017.
Business will welcome this grace period, although Ros Altmann, former pensions adviser to Downing Street, thinks it could be a disaster.
"Policymakers have failed to grasp the scale of cutbacks in existing pension coverage that Nests will engender," she said. "Employers are currently contributing well over the 3% minimum but they will have a huge incentive to cut back to much lower levels once the government's scheme starts. This means workers with pensions at the moment could end up worse off in future."
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Worrying, as I am in a scheme with high employer contributions and I can't see them being cut without a fight. The trade-off may be lower pay and other benefits, but in these hard times many workers already recognise that higher pension contributions are only deferred pay.
The sooner we accept pensions are not free money, the better.
Kathryn Cooper is editor of the Money section