GIVEN it would seem there is nowhere Ireland are more at ease than at Cardiff — including Dublin, even — Welsh expressions of how hard it will be to beat their opponents on Saturday are totally genuine.
The Ireland record at the Millennium stadium, the Arms Park (and once at Wembley when the Arms Park was being reincarnated) is so strong that when Mike Ruddock’s team completed their 2005 Grand Slam it was the first home victory for Wales against Ireland for 22 years.
Since then, Wales have done it a second time, in the 2011 game notorious for the illicit quick lineout throw that preceded Mike Phillips’ decisive but spurious try. Thank you, referee Jonathan Kaplan and touch judge Peter Allan.
So two wins — and one draw — in 32 years is a lamentable, and inexplicable, record. In the same period, Wales have won nine times in Dublin, but the last time Ireland were visitors they were 30-3 ahead. The seeds of Wales’ 2013 title were sown in the comeback that left the final score 30-22.
It was still a defeat, and it had certainly been a terrible first 44 minutes. But the remaining 36 showed qualities that keep making Wales serious contenders. Where once they would have folded, nowadays they usually keep their shape in whatever adversity.
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This they showed in beating France in Paris last weekend. Even accepting that the French are “in perdition” according to their leading rugby scribe, the limited, joyless rugby with which they purported to challenge Wales made it a rehearsal of sorts for Ireland.
Everything about Wales’ rugby there was an improvement on when they set out on the 2015 RBS Six Nations by losing to England. Proactively, they had a thoughtful and well-balanced Parisian strategy that might well have delivered more than Dan Biggar’s try and Leigh Halfpenny’s five penalties.
And reactively, Wales prevailed in the aerial contest as they decisively did not against England. So while Ireland are three-fifths of the way towards a Grand Slam, a win would leave Wales with a shot at the championship, though with plenty of points-difference to make up.
If their coach, Warren Gatland, imagined England would “kick the leather off it” at the Millennium stadium last month, he need have no uncertainty about Ireland after the pinpoint blitz that removed England’s defence a week ago.
The starting point is dealing with the kicking of Conor Murray and, if fit, Jonathan Sexton vastly better than England’s back three did. In Leigh Halfpenny and Liam Williams they trust.
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To have a go back at Ireland, the Wales pack must help Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies in the middle as they did in Paris. Luther Burrell forecast such a role for himself for England in Dublin but had little effect.
This helpfully means the still-new centre partnership of Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne — four Tests together in this post-Brian O’Driscoll era — are unproven against Warrenball and its variants.
The France win gives Wales overdue evidence that they can get right and, where necessary put right, their forward play. With the helpful stepping stone of the narrow win in Scotland, everything that went amiss against England was rectified in Paris.
Of further cheer was the unlikely statistic of 100% Wales success at the lineout as well as withstanding the France driving maul exactly as they will have to when Paul O’Connell gets his pack trying the same.
Congratulations are due to Scott Baldwin for his throwing-in and above all to Alun Wyn Jones for his prodigious contribution to Wales forward-play, in both stirring its passion and staying dispassionate about the technicalities.
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The quality of Jones’ display in the defeat of the Springboks last November, three weeks after Ireland had done so too, has been repeated against France, Scotland and even in defeat by England. He does this in game after game for the Ospreys. He is a marvel of endurance and consistency.
“I said after the South Africa and Scotland games that the successes or losses we have don’t paper over the cracks,” Jones said. “We are trying to be level-headed and realistic and, if we sit back and look at how good or bad a performance was, we won’t get anywhere.”
I think we know what he means: look forward, not back. If every player were like him, Wales would beat not only Ireland on Saturday but also England and Australia in the World Cup pool.