Read Deborah Haynes’s blog from Inside Iraq
Iraq’s divided Government has failed to meet key political goals set by Washington and violence is set to increase, according to a sober White House report.
Despite some advances by the Government of Nouri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister, the security situation in Iraq remains “complex and extremely challenging”, the report said. The economic picture was uneven.
Mr Bush issued the findings six months after he ordered the US troop “surge” into Iraq as he tries to quell a growing Republican revolt over the war. Congress had demanded a report on progress towards meeting political, military and economic reforms set by Capitol Hill in war funding legislation.
The report revealed that the number of suicide bombers and roadside bombs had approached record highs in March and April, “further exacerbating sectarian tension and making political deals more difficult to close”.
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Eighty per cent of suicide bombers were foreign fighters, it said, the vast majority from Syria. Between 50 and 80 suicide bombers travelled from Syria to join al-Qaeda’s ranks in Iraq every month, it said. But it added that while all US goals had not yet been met, the surge strategy remained in its early days. There were some encouraging signs that should, in time, “point the way to a more normalised and sustainable level of US engagement in Iraq”, it said.
In all, Baghdad had made “unsatisfactory” progress on eight mostly political goals, and “satisfactory” progress on eight largely military benchmarks. It was too early to assess the other two, Mr Bush said.
The decidedly mixed report card gave political ammunition to supporters and opponents of the war. Mr Bush latched on to its more positive aspects to make another passionate plea to give the surge more time to work.
“I believe we can succeed in Iraq and I know we must,” Mr Bush said. He added that any premature withdrawal of US troops would be a “disaster”, leaving Iraq to al-Qaeda and destabilising the region.
The total number of “surge” troops had been in place for only three weeks, he said, and it was inevitable that political progress lagged behind military gains.
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“Those of us who believe the battle in Iraq can and must be won see the satisfactory performance on several of the security benchmarks as a cause for optimism,” he said.
Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate Leader, countered: “Today’s report from the President confirms what many had suspected – the war in Iraq is headed in a dangerous direction.”
Mr Reid, calling for a withdrawal of troops, added: “The Iraqi Government has not met the key political benchmarks . . . and Iraqi security forces continue to lag well behind expectations.”
The most worrying element for Mr Bush was the almost total failure of Mr al-Maliki’s Government to foster political reconciliation. It had also largely failed to increase the number of Iraqi troops able to fight independently of US units – a key precondition for US troop reductions – or to tackle the infiltration of Shia death squads into the security services.
The Iraqi Government was also failing to meet key political goals, such as rewriting the Constitution to give more power to Sunnis, who largely boycotted the initial drafting, and passing a Bill to share the country’s future oil revenue equally between all regions. The report also predicted “tough fighting” during the summer and that al-Qaeda was likely to “increase its tempo of attacks” before the full progress report to Congress by General David Petraeus, the US ground commander, on September 15.
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Despite eight Republican senators breaking ranks with Mr Bush in recent days, the President still appears to have enough support in the Senate to keep his surge strategy on course. Most of the defectors made clear in procedural votes on Wednesday that they are not yet ready to side with Democrats in demanding a timetabled withdrawal of troops.
The report comes during the war’s fifth year and after the deaths of more than 3,600 US troops. A congressional watchdog said this week that the conflict is now costing $10 billion a week.
Anthony Cordesman, an independent analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: “The Iraqi Government has not really met the Bush Administration’s benchmarks in any major area. Seen from a more nuanced perspective, actual progress has been more limited and has often had tenuous meaning.”
The report was the first official assessment of the surge announced by Mr Bush last year after Republicans had lost the midterm congressional elections, in which the war was a key issue.
The benchmarks
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Unsatisfactory
— Reverse de-Baathification
— Distribute oil revenues equally among all regions
— Enact and implement amnesty legislation
— Ensure that Iraqi security forces are accountable only to the Government and loyal to Constitution; establish a militia disarmament programme
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— Give Iraqi commanders authority to make military decisions without political interventions
— Ensure evenhanded enforcement of the law
— Increase the number of Iraqi security units able to operate independently
— Ensure Iraqi political authorities are not undermining the Iraqi security forces
Mixed
— Pave way for provincial elections by end of the year
— Reduce the level of sectarian violence and eliminate militia control of security
Satisfactory
— Amend the Constitution
— Form semi-autonomous regions by law
— Provide three Iraqi brigades to give support in Baghdad
— Support Baghdad security plan
— Root out outlaws, regardless of sectarian affiliation
— Establish joint security stations in Baghdad
— Protect minority rights of political parties
— Spend $10 billion on reconstruction and infrastructure projects