A-levels had a 100 per cent pass rate last year and leading universities will have to set their own entrance tests if grade inflation continues, an education expert will warn today.
Almost two-fifths of A-levels were graded A or A* last year and even more pupils are expected to achieve the top grades this summer, according to analysis by Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham. He said “inflated grades” would become the new norm, making it more difficult for universities to select accurately and fairly.
The study comes as the cap was lifted on medical school admissions in England after applications rose by more than 20 per cent, potentially allowing hundreds more students to become doctors or dentists.
Pupils have not sat normal exams since 2019. Last year’s tests were cancelled and replaced by school-assessed grades. Overall, these were higher than the previous year and rose even further when the algorithm used to moderate grades was scrapped after an outcry over inconsistencies and downgrading.
Exams were cancelled again this year, and academics believe that the number of top grades could also rise.
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Hundreds of thousands of school-leavers will find out their grades on Tuesday. Teachers in England based their marks on evidence including mock exams, coursework and in-class assessments using questions from exam boards.
Smithers said: “The early signs are that it will be another bumper year for grades, justified as compensation for all the disruption suffered.
“The expansion of the A* and A grades means that a much wider range of abilities is bundled up in them.
“Some of those admitted may not be able to cope and will have wasted time and money, and some who are more able will miss out on their first choice — due to the over-marking of others — when they could have done really well.
“Awarding higher grades in compensation for lost learning can be killing with kindness,” he added.
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“Leading universities could be forced to set their own tests to help them distinguish between the many prospective students awarded straight As.”
Last year, 38.6 per cent of UK entries were awarded an A or A* grade, compared with 25.5 per cent in 2019, according to statistics published by the Joint Council for Qualifications. Smithers said: “While there is no reason why A-level standards should not be restored to what they were in 2019, my fear is that the various pressures will cause the government to allow what they became in 2020 to stand.
“At best, the grade pattern may fall somewhere between those of 2019 and 2020, but there are hints that there could be more top grades than in 2020.”
He said arguments for more sympathetic grading could be made for this cohort as they have faced disruption in both years of their courses. “This year’s candidates will be competing for university places with the overspill from 2020, and reverting to the harder-edged 2019 grade pattern would leave them in danger of being squeezed out.”
A spokesman for Universities UK said: “Admissions teams already take a wide range of information into account, including personal statements, references, interviews and auditions. It is in no one’s interest to admit students who don’t have the potential to succeed.”
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The cap on medical school places was raised last night, allowing hundreds more young people in England to train as doctors and dentists.
More places will be made available after a 21 per cent rise in applications. Precise numbers will not be settled until after A-level results day on Tuesday but an extra £10 million will be made available to pay for the spaces, which will bring the total above 9,000.
One admissions officer told The Times yesterday that universities had been told to be prepared to take medical students rejected by other institutions. He said that they would be penalised for under-recruitment as well as over-recruitment of medical students for the first time this year.
The Times revealed in May that Professor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, had been credited with inspiring a surge in school-leavers applying to medicine and nursing courses. Ucas said that sixth-formers had been inspired by the pandemic response.
The number of applications for British medical degrees has increased by 21 per cent in a year to 28,690. There are well over three times as many candidates for medicine as places that were initially available this autumn and hundreds of school-leavers have deferred.
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Officials expect the English intake to include more than 600 deferrals from last year, providing extra competition for new candidates. The cap exists to ensure that every student has an appropriate placement and training.
Kate Green, shadow education secretary, said that the government was in “panic mode” before A-level results.
