The Scottish government’s Referendum Bill on independence — widely expected to be published next Monday, Robert Burns’s birthday — may now be delayed.
The Times has learnt that there is now a question mark over the timing — although ministers are keen to emphasise that if there is a delay it will be only a short one.
The date had been widely circulated in the media without correction by the Scottish government. However, last night a spokesman for the First Minister said: “There are still one or two conditions we need to have before we can fix on the exact date. But we are still talking about late January or early February. In fact, we may well still publish next Monday.”
The spokesman did not say what he meant by “conditions” but added that these were not significant. It is known that Mr Salmond and his Civil Service advisers have been mulling over the options to put before Scots in a referendum on their constitutional future.
However, it is clear that the referendum could ask Scots to choose between a series of options: independence; the status quo; limited additional powers for the Scottish Parliament; or a version of “devolution max”, with greater fiscal autonomy.
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There are also suggestions within government that Mr Salmond is considering a Bill that does not mention a date for a referendum. Again, it had been widely assumed that the government wanted to hold the plebiscite on St Andrew’s Day this year — November 30. Mr Salmond, though, has already made clear that he is “not absolutely fixed” on that date.
The reasoning would appear to be that by omitting the date he would make it trickier for Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who have both accepted that a referendum will be held at some time, to vote down the principle.
At the moment there is no chance of Mr Salmond’s Referendum Bill becoming law because of the trenchant opposition from the three Unionist parties at Holyrood.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both argued that because the Scottish economy is still fighting its way out of deep recession, this year is not the right time for such a vote to be held.
However, Mr Salmond’s spokesman said: “We have suggested the date that we think is appropriate. If others have got other dates to suggest based on the acceptance of the principle of a referendum, let us hear those ideas.”
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Research published last week by the authoritative Scottish Centre for Social Research found that only 28 per cent of Scots support Mr Salmond’s core aim of independence. However, a clear majority want the Scottish Parliament to have much greater power over taxation and welfare.
Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, said that any delay in publishing the Bill would be “a humiliation” for Mr Salmond. “This looks like the referendum, their last flagship policy, is sinking just as the local income tax did. It is a clear sign the SNP are in disarray over what to do and have lost confidence in their major policy,” Mr Gray added.
Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Conservative leader, said that Mr Salmond should scrap the Bill. “The SNP is at the extreme of the constitutional debate and support for independence is at an all-time low. Alex Salmond should get on with what he was elected to do instead of wasting millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money on his doomed separation Bill,” she said.