Imagine a Britain with Corbyn in charge

I’ve no idea which Jim Callaghan meant. But in this election there is a solid body of opinion that does not want Jeremy Corbyn to be prime minister but believes that supporting Labour is fine because he cannot possibly win and it will tame
Theresa May.

So all I want to do in this piece is ask these people this question: what if you are wrong?

I recognise that the sceptics only form a part of Labour’s prospective vote. There are many who are enthusiastic about Mr Corbyn and others who, whatever their doubts, would prefer any left government to the Tories. But hopefully the exercise I am about to conduct will be useful to these people too. What if Labour were to win tomorrow?

I share the view that the Conservatives are likely to win a majority, but it is impossible to be certain. After the 2015 election, the EU referendum and the election of Donald Trump it seems ridiculous to go into election night without considering what might happen if the experts are taken by surprise. So let’s have a go at thinking it through.

What I am about to suggest is highly speculative but not, I think, unreasonable.

To begin with, if Labour is in a position where it might be able to win a vote of confidence, Jeremy Corbyn will remain as leader and, if successful in negotiating a deal, would become prime minister. Even though at least half of his MPs do not regard him as fit to do the job personally or politically, they will have to acknowledge that he has won a great victory. It wouldn’t be possible (or even honourable) to withhold their support.

Mr Corbyn might be able to form a government with fewer MPs than the Conservatives, but only with the support of the SNP. He would be able to secure it by offering them a further referendum on Scottish independence. He would need his party to support him on this, but it is quite likely that they would, given that it is the price of taking power.

If the Liberal Democrats had more than ten MPs, he might seek to secure their support by offering a second referendum on the terms of leaving the EU. Most Labour MPs would, in reality, be happy to offer this, although they will note it has little public support.

Even if deals like this prove possible, and we do not lapse into pretty immediate chaos, the new government would be highly unstable. It wouldn’t have a majority, for one thing. Mr Corbyn would doubtless try, and probably succeed, to improve his position in parliament by broadening his cabinet, but the relationship would still be shaky.

I am not saying that every bit of this will happen. The more predictions you make, the more likely it is that one of them will be wrong. The resigning bit is an example. After all, Mr Corbyn has form. He likes to stick around. He could lose in the Commons frequently and still remain in post. John McDonnell has been explicit that he thinks the politics of the street are required to supplement parliamentary democracy. A tussle between a Corbyn government and MPs could be very messy.

But without going too far into the realms of fantasy, it is possible to imagine having two referendums and a further general election before we leave the EU. Assuming that we do.

The hardest part of any speculation about a Labour government is making a credible claim about what might happen in the Brexit negotiations. The party is committed to achieving all the benefits of single market access without being a part of the single market. It also argues that it would definitely leave, but would definitely not leave without a deal.

These do not appear to be consistent positions. However, as any Brexit negotiation with any government is likely to be incredibly messy, and a minority government might well not survive until the end of the process, it may not be all that valuable to try guessing.

The new government would almost certainly move very quickly on spending and tax. It would probably be able to unite its MPs and the SNP behind a radical budget. And in order to satisfy its voter base it would need billions of pounds almost immediately in order to cancel tuition fees and raise public-sector wages. For those looking for an immediate end to austerity, I do not believe they will disappoint.

A financial transaction tax might take time to design, so they are more likely to move on corporation tax first. We will all have our own views on how much sense it makes to introduce a vast increase in business tax just at the moment. I would certainly argue that combining this with Brexit is quite likely to produce a collapse in business confidence.

Given Mr McDonnell proclaims himself a Marxist, he might quite welcome such a crisis as offering opportunities for an expansion of government involvement.

I recognise that this might seem a slightly mischievous thing to allege. But it needs to be said. You won’t be able to understand what a Corbyn government might do unless you realise the team around Mr Corbyn are not merely the usual left of the Labour Party. These are people who have sent messages of solidarity to North Korea, saluted the IRA dead and bigged up Chavez’s Venezuela. They are allied to far-left groups. They are committed to a non-aligned foreign policy, regarding western liberalism as nothing special and our alliances as disastrous. They have opposed all terror laws, believing the right answer is to understand the root causes, which lie in our own imperialist adventures.

This is not an attack or a smear, since they did these things proudly and on purpose. They’ve written books about them and attended hundreds of rallies. I am merely trying to describe them.

Sure, conventional wisdom is that they won’t win. But conventional wisdom said they wouldn’t come close. Conventional wisdom can be wrong. This is not a drill.