LESS than an hour after the first giveaway budget since the economic collapse, a Fine Gael minister sat alone in the Leinster House canteen, looking disconsolate.
“It’s a perfect election budget,” he said mournfully, picking at his poached salmon. “We’ve done everything we said we would. There’s something in it for everyone. It’s the perfect time to go [to the country].”
He chewed thoughtfully on some coleslaw before perking up. “I wouldn’t rule it out though,” he said, poking his finger in the air. “The taoiseach didn’t rule it out on Sunday. He went close, but he left the window open. And depending on the reaction to the budget....you watch this space.”
The following morning, however, Enda Kenny finally extinguished any hope of a November poll. “No, I have made my mind up on this; the election will be in the spring,” the taoiseach told Newstalk’s Pat Kenny. “I have confirmed that beyond yay or nay now, so everybody out there who is going to be a contender in any shape or form should start making their preparations.”
For Labour, the announcement was an unbridled victory. Over the previous few weeks, Joan Burton had made no secret of her desire for a spring poll. When there was a distinct shift in Kenny’s language two weeks ago, and he repeatedly refused to rule out an early election, the Labour leader remained adamant it wouldn’t happen. “I wouldn’t bet on it,” she grinned, speaking to journalists at a policy launch.
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Until last Saturday afternoon, however, sources close to Kenny were saying he would leave wriggle room during an interview on RTE’s The Week in Politics the following day. Instead, the taoiseach effectively closed down speculation, saying the election would be in Spring 2016.
So did something happen to change the taoiseach’s mind in the 24 hours before his RTE interview? And, with the momentum behind the government parties after their €3bn spending splurge last week, has Kenny missed a golden opportunity to go to the people?
Whatever Burton was saying in public, Labour was privately spooked by a story in The Irish Times on October 8 which suggested Kenny was leaning towards a November poll. “We said this needs to be dealt with for once and for all,” said a Labour source. “And we were making our view clear about our preference for February.”
Every time she met the taoiseach that week, Burton pitched every reason she could think of for not going to the country early. The main benefits of the budget would not be felt until the New Year, she reasoned. The banking inquiry would not report until late January; there were still key pieces of legislation to pass, such as that on the Policing Authority.
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“Kenny basically said ‘I hear you, I hear you, but there’s a large caucus within my party and at senior levels arguing the case for November’,” said the Labour source.
By last Saturday afternoon, Fine Gael sources were briefing that Kenny would keep his options open. “I wouldn’t put all your eggs in a 2016 election basket just yet,” said one, who predicted the taoiseach would say his plan was to hold an election in Spring 2016, and he saw no reason to change his mind on that “at present”. A number of Fine Gael ministers were told to expect a similar message.
When he got to studio, however, Kenny went further than expected. “I have been consistently very clear on this,” he said. “It is my intention to hold the election in the spring of 2016... I see no reason to change my mind.”
Labour was “pleasantly surprised” at the strength of his assurance while sources in Fine Gael conceded it was “stronger and more categorical” than expected. So what changed the taoiseach’s mind?
A Labour figure claimed Burton put the squeeze on the taoiseach, threatening to withhold her support for aspects of the budget if he didn’t rule out November. Fine Gael sources scoffed at this. “Labour has no leverage to apply any pressure,” said one.
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One Fine Gael minister suggested Fionnuala Kenny, the taoiseach’s wife and a former Fianna Fail press officer, influenced him. “His wife has seen a lot of politics, and they would have talked about it over the weekend,” he said.
Another minister said the taoiseach decided a show of coalition unity was more important than the potential political benefits for Fine Gael of a snap election. “All our internal polls show ‘stability’ is the word the government polls strongest on,” he said. “Stability means doing your full term and not falling out with your government partner.”
Kenny, it seems, went with his gut on the day, deciding any obfuscation would anger Labour and overshadow the budget. “His instinct has turned out to be right, if you look at what is happening now,” claimed one Fine Gael source. “There has been a clear run at the budget, it was positive and got comprehensive coverage.”
It was a big call, however, one that many Fine Gael TDs believe they’ll regret. “I think we just passed up the best opportunity for an election,” said one minister. “In the last four weeks we’ve had the capital plan, the sports capital grants, and the budget. All the talk has been about the economy and how things are getting better. There’s no crisis. Everything is looking good. If things go badly next spring, a lot of people will be looking back at this moment. Have we missed our best chance? I think, probably, yes.”
For Labour, there are no such doubts. “Our traditional core voters, the public sector, won’t feel the reversal of the public-sector wage cuts until January,” said one Labour figure. “When you take that along with the tax cuts, it’ll mean quite a bit more into some people’s pockets in the new year, and those people are our voters.”
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The government saw evidence of this last year. In The Sunday Times/ Behaviour & Attitudes (B&A) poll immediately after the 2015 budget, which delivered the first tax cuts in seven years, Labour plunged from 14% in August to 9% a week after the budget and to 5% a week before Christmas.
Fine Gael, over a similar period, went from 28% with Red C in September 2014 to 19% with Ipsos/MRBI on December 2. It didn’t get back to a comfortable 27% in a B&A poll until March 2015.
The political pay-off from people feeling the budget benefits in their pockets could be outweighed by the government having nothing to say for the next four months, however. “Before this budget, there was lots we could say we were going to do,” said one Fine Gael figure. “We’ve done it. Now what do we talk about?”
Another Fine Gael minister agreed there would be a “danger period” between now and the election. “The six weeks of serious business before the Christmas season kicks in is going to be challenging, and we have to populate that with activity,” he said. “I think you’ll see a few new things in the Finance Bill, a few new things in the social welfare bill, enough to keep the narrative on the economy.”
Fergus Finlay, a former Labour adviser, believes the long lead-in time to the election could work in the government’s favour. “The core message of this coalition should be of stability, and it requires some time to hammer that home,” he said. “Our preference, as a people, is to throw the government out. Ten of the last 15 elections have resulted in new parties going into government. We’re more comfortable in Ireland changing governments than keeping them in office.”
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Finlay said a long campaign also gives the government the chance to claim there are no viable alternative coalitions. “At the moment, the only thing the opposition parties are united about is that they won’t work with each other,” he said. “I think the more that is examined and the more debates take place, the more it will become clear there’s no easy way for a government to be formed.”
Already there is evidence of this becoming an issue, with Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin being pressed by journalists on the formation of the next government at the party’s presidential dinner last weekend. Martin, who stated the party would not go into government with Sinn Fein or Fine Gael, was asked if he would deprive the country of a viable government. “There’s a significant degree of independents coming through,” he said. “There’s a range of potential options.”
On current support levels as measured by the polls, the hotch-potch collection of independents and small parties needed to form a government with Fianna Fail would suggest anything but stability. Martin will be challenged on this throughout the long election campaign.
Perhaps recognising this problem, Sinn Fein has moved to soften its stance that it would only go into government as the largest party. Pádraig Mac Lochlainn, the party’s justice spokesman, told the Sunday Times he would support Sinn Fein entering coalition with a larger party such as Fianna Fail as long as there is a left-wing majority in the government.
Today’s B&A poll will reassure the taoiseach he has made the correct call. While Labour has climbed two points to 8% from a low point in August, Fine Gael drops three points to 24%. The survey was mainly conducted before the budget, between October 5-14. Many of the big budget giveaways had been leaked in advance, however, such as cuts to the USC, a €5 increase in child benefit, tax breaks for the self-employed and a childcare package.
It’s a long way off the minimum combined 40% support the government parties need to be returned to office. Will a take-home pay bounce in January and a few more months make all the difference? Ian McShane, B&A’s managing director, noted Labour’s support is higher among female voters (11%) and at a “very respectable 14%” in the commuter belt outside Dublin.
“If Labour can manage to reach a national opinion poll figure of 10% over the coming months, it will be in a reasonable position to challenge for a series of seats in four- and five-seat constituencies that it would currently struggle to convert,” he said.
McShane’s analysis of Fine Gael’s prospects is equally unenthusiastic. “It is still difficult to see Fine Gael support exceeding 27% or 28% come election day,” he said.
Senior figures in both Labour and Fine Gael disputed this, saying the current polls do not take into account the change in people’s attitudes that will take place in the final week of the election campaign.
“In the last five days, when people are focusing on who they really want in government, that’s when we’ll make gains,” one Fine Gael minister confidently predicted last week. “Of course, that’s if no political timebombs go off in the meantime. But that’s the risk we’ve taken now. Or, to be precise, that’s the risk Kenny has taken for us.”
@SarahAMcInerney @sob999