Scots have denied Nicola Sturgeon a majority in the Holyrood election, forcing her to appeal for support from her political opponents to pursue her core policies.
The first minister will have to cut a series of unpalatable deals with other parties if she is to get her budget and manifesto commitments through parliament. Any hopes of a second referendum now seem remote.
The SNP leader was thwarted in her aim to form a majority government by a rampant Scottish Conservative party that far exceeded expectations to leapfrog Labour and achieve second place.
A jubilant Ruth Davidson — who won her own Edinburgh Central constituency — immediately went on the attack, warning Ms Sturgeon to drop any plans for a referendum as any claim she had to a mandate had vanished. “Now that she has failed to win a majority, whatever claims the SNP were pursuing with regard to constitutional brinkmanship over the next five years have now been utterly shredded,” Ms Davidson said.
The Tories won 31 seats, including seven constituencies, leading the prime minister to hail a “realignment” of Scottish politics and claim that Labour had lost touch with the people it was supposed to represent.
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For its part, Labour was struggling to come to terms with a devastating defeat. Recriminations had begun not long after the polls had closed, with one candidate branding the manifesto “self-immolation for dummies”.
Yesterday Kezia Dugdale, who did not win her constituency but got in on the list, said she took full responsibility for having won only 24 seats, but some of her party colleagues sought to lay the blame at Jeremy Corbyn’s door.
“We won a clear and unequivocal mandate
Ms Sturgeon, clearly chastened by her own party’s result, attempted to put a positive gloss on it in a speech outside her official residence yesterday afternoon. She said: “We won a clear and unequivocal mandate. And I secured the personal mandate I sought to implement the bold and ambitious programme for government that I asked the country to vote on.”
She sought to brush aside the matter on which she cannot expect to secure agreement. She said: “On the question of independence, the SNP will make our case with passion, with patience and with respect. But our aim is to persuade, not to divide.”
Aides insisted yesterday that no behind-the-scenes negotiations were taking place with other parties, but leaders will be calculating what concessions they can squeeze from the Nationalists in exchange for limited support.
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As a minority administration, the SNP could come under pressure over its named person policy and its offensive behaviour at football legislation. It could also struggle with other proposals, such as reducing air passenger duty.
On the crucial issue of income tax, the SNP’s plans are closest to those of the Tories. Ms Sturgeon is committed to George Osborne’s agenda — other than refusing to pass on his relief to higher-rate earners.
“Put the bulldozer back in the shed
In a signal of how difficult she will find negotiations, Patrick Harvie, whose Scottish Greens increased their seats from two to six, warned Ms Sturgeon that the SNP would find themselves “quite uncomfortable if they choose to make alliances with the Conservatives only on the financial approach to the use of the new taxation powers”.
Willie Rennie, the Liberal Democrat leader, who surprised many by winning his constituency, accused the SNP of a “creeping arrogance” and urged them to “put the bulldozer back in the shed”.
Scottish Labour, meanwhile, kept a low profile.