How we can save Taiwan from Ukraine’s fate

At the start of last month, Putin was confident he could withstand whatever sanctions were imposed on him. Russia had, after all, increased its foreign country reserves to $630 billion, a 75 per cent rise since 2015. These reserves were akin to a third of the Russian economy. But the central bank sanctions, which he didn’t see coming and which had not been flagged up by the G7 in advance, have put at least half this warchest beyond use.

The coalition that has imposed sanctions on Russia should make clear the same awaits China if it attempts to blockade or take Taiwan. As one Cabinet China hawk says, the measures are “a good playbook for what is possible” and show how you can turn a country into “a total pariah”. Yet if sanctions are to work as a deterrent, they must be clearly communicated ahead of time. Had Putin known the West would derail his economy, he may have thought twice before invading Ukraine.

The obvious flaw in the current package is that it doesn’t (yet) apply to Moscow’s energy exports; it has been designed so Europe can keep buying Russian oil and gas. If the West had built up alternative sources of supplies, it would have been able to rachet up the pressure on the Kremlin by several notches.

This makes the case for reducing our dependence on China now, so the West has the freest hand if it comes to imposing economic measures on Beijing. Australia’s plan to mine more of the critical minerals used in electronics, a market China currently dominates, is sensible. As is EU and US cooperation on electric car batteries. But there is also an urgent need for G7 coordination to ensure alternative sources of supplies for things such as medicines.

Cutting Russia out of the world economy is painful; it will push up energy and food bills for British households. Doing so to China, whose economy is six times larger, would hurt even more, especially as it is far more integrated into global supply chains. So the G7 must start working out how it would sanction China if necessary: the threat of such action might be the best way to deter Beijing from attacking Taiwan.

Another lesson would be to step up the delivery of weaponry to Taiwan. Almost two dozen countries are now sending lethal aid to Ukraine, but before the war started only a handful, led by the US and Britain, were doing so. As one British government source points out, the deliveries of anti-tank missiles are one of the reasons why, four weeks in, the Russians have made so little progress.

Even countries supplying Kyiv before the Russian attack are now sending more advanced weapons. The UK is providing Star Streak anti-aircraft missiles and the US announced on Wednesday it is sending another $800 million of military aid, including switchblade drones which can destroy tanks at a range of 25 miles. But imagine how the Russian offensive might have gone if Ukraine had been supplied with all this weaponry before the fighting started.

The Russian missile strike close to the Polish border at the weekend was designed to deter Nato from funneling supplies into Ukraine. There is an obvious escalatory risk if the Russians, in seeking to disrupt these supply lines, strike inside the alliance’s territory. It is also much harder to get weapons in once a conflict has started. So start sending Taiwan what it would need to defend itself now, rather than waiting for the invasion fleet to appear on the horizon.

There is also a strong case for the US positioning troops to preserve its options if China does attempt to use force. As the American strategist Hal Brands has argued, it would be better to move US forces to the Japanese islands neighbouring Taiwan now. Doing so when tensions are even higher, or the Chinese are already heading towards Taiwan, would be far more difficult, and could be seen as an offensive, rather than defensive, move.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine a slew of European nations have announced plans to increase spending on defence. The most dramatic is Germany’s plan to spend 2 per cent of its GDP on defence by 2024. Berlin has this week announced it intends to buy American F-35s, which could be used to deliver US nuclear weapons if there was a war on the continent.

The decision of Europe’s largest economy to start spending seriously on defence has significantly improved the security of the continent. In time, it will play a significant role in deterring Russia from further revanchism. In Asia, balancing China would become much easier if the world’s third largest economy, Japan, reconsidered its self-imposed limit on defence spending. In the last ten years, Tokyo has increased its military budget to just over one per cent of GDP. Yet, the $52 billion is dwarfed by the $252 billion China is estimated to be spending.

Germany’s decision was welcomed by its neighbours, which is the greatest compliment one can pay to how the country has confronted its wartime past. Japan rearming would be more complicated: South Korea still regularly objects to how Japanese textbooks portray the histories of the two countries. But it is hard to see how China can be countered in the Indo-Pacific in the coming decades unless Japan develops a more robust military presence.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the West has got many things right. Yet, there is no doubt that Western mistakes over the past few years, and splits in the weeks and months beforehand, made Putin think he could get away with his invasion. The West cannot afford to repeat these with Taiwan.

James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator