When the Conservative government took power in June 1970 — the year in which the first jumbo jet landed in Britain, Paul McCartney left the Beatles, Harold Wilson was hit in the face with an egg, the Glastonbury festival was held for the first time, the philosopher Bertrand Russell died and Andy Burnham was born — the average UK house price was a mere £4,508, according to eMoov.co.uk.
Today’s Tory government presides over a very different landscape. Property prices have increased by an estimated 4,725% to the current average of £217,502. Using historical data from 1970 to 1997, the online estate agency has compared annual price growth across all 650 UK constituencies under successive governments. It turns out that Labour oversaw higher growth, 16.62% a year to the Conservatives’ 15.14%.
Far more sobering is the fact that house prices fell for the third month in a row in May: that’s the longest sustained drop since the peak of the financial crisis. The news has led to fears of another property recession. Concerns over Brexit and the outcome of the general election, as well as a housing shortage, are being blamed.
Nationwide, one of Britain’s biggest mortgage providers, found that average prices fell by 0.2% between April and May, dipping to £208,711. Robert Gardner, the building society’s chief economist, said the figures added to signs that the housing market was losing momentum. Mortgage approvals dipped to a seven-month low in April, according to the Bank of England, and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says estate agents have been reporting stagnant demand among new buyers since November.
The “skip index” — which traditionally links the presence of builders’ skips with a buoyant market — might suggest things are on the turn, but these days it also reflects the fact that people are improving rather than moving. The number of rusty yellow buckets on my shabby street has jumped from none at the start of the year to three. There is only one “For sale” board.
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Pockets of the country are faring better. The West Midlands is seeing the highest annual growth in asking prices, 5.9% — almost twice the national average (3%) — and figures to be released this week by Rightmove show the Midlands engine is revving up.
The property portal sifted data to find places where the average time it takes to shift a home has fallen year on year: a sure sign that the local market has a strong heartbeat. The winner? Walsall, where it now takes an average of 37 days to sell (at an average price of £166,541) compared with 66 in 2016. It’s followed by Halesowen and Stourbridge (both 44 days, down from 74 and 72). Rossendale, in Lancashire, and Halifax, in West Yorkshire, also fared well.
“The West Midlands has been coming to the fore over the past few months as the ripple effect of rising prices has made its way up the country,” says Miles Shipside, Rightmove’s commercial director. “In addition, Birmingham city centre is seeing an influx of investors priced out of London, tempted by good yields and the prospect of capital growth.”
That said, there are still more £1m-plus properties in the southwest (14,300) than there are in the Midlands and the north combined (14,100). As we reveal in our cover story this week, the number of property “millionaires” more than doubled between 2006 and 2016. Savills estate agency calculates that seven-figure homes now account for £883bn of property wealth.
Whoever is in government for the next five years, housing needs to be near the top of the agenda. Our guide on page 8 will help you get to grips with the rival manifesto pledges, whether you are a young renter, a baby-boomer or somewhere in between.
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Incidentally, 1970 also saw the first broadcast on Radio 4 of You and Yours. Another sobering thought.
Bonnes pratiques
The allure of the French lifestyle, especially if you live in Fulham, is eternal. Stripy tops, straw baskets, salty nibbles, tomatoes, rosé: it’s all seductive stuff. Tom Jaine fell for it, and has dedicated himself to a remarkable project from his home in rural Devon. He is publishing the first English translation of the doorstopping manual by the Gallic equivalent of Mrs Beeton: The French Country Housewife, or Maison rustique des dames, by Cora Millet-Robinet. Published next month by Prospect Books (£35), its daunting 712 pages of rural 19th-century housekeeping advice are packed with guidance on how to make your own eau de toilette, clean the intestines of a pig and “rid trousers of knee indentations”. Surely the perfect gift if you are planning to blag a few nights or more at the French holiday homes of your friends.
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