It’s beginning to look an awful lot like last Christmas. Parties are being cancelled, masks are back on, infections are rocketing and travel has turned into a game of five-round Russian roulette.
It’s just 12 weeks since Grant Shapps, the transport minister, scrapped the traffic-light process, announcing “a simpler system . . . with less testing and lower costs, allowing more people to travel, see loved ones or conduct business around the world”. And it’s only nine days since he told listeners of the Chopper’s Politics podcast that the government’s “calibrated response” would not “kill off the travel sector”.
Maybe travel hasn’t been killed off. But it has certainly been turned into a minefield, leaving tens of thousands who were told it was safe to book now wondering which path to take. The biggest fear is that the same shoot-first-ask-questions-later logic that was used to red-list 11 African countries over the past ten days will be applied to other nations.
Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control shows that Canada, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and the US all have a higher rate of infection than any red-listed country except South Africa. Common sense suggests that as Omicron spreads — it’s now present in at least 57 nations — there would be little point in adding more countries to the list. But then common sense has played little part in previous travel policy.
Faced with a choice of a ten-day stretch in a quarantine hotel — at a cost just short of £7,000 for a family of four — or cancelling your trip, what would you do?
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Then there’s the predeparture lateral flow test, brought back in after suggestions by ministers that it would be too damaging to the sector to do so — if positive you are not allowed back to the UK and must self-isolate overseas. If you’re in Spain, where several provinces offer free insurance, or travelling with an operator such as Tui, you’ll be taken care of. But otherwise it’ll be up to you, or your insurance company, to foot the bill.
Next up it’s the day two PCR test — with which you have to isolate until your result is known. For some, happy to pay top dollar, this might be a matter of hours; others report waits of days because of delayed or bungled tests. Positive test? You must isolate for ten days, which from the end of next week would mean a terminal blow to Christmas cheer.
The increasing risk that the UK — with one of the highest infection rates in the world — could be red-listed by other countries while you’re away is a further dent to confidence.
And the fifth and final bullet is the vaccine-passport mandate. In Spain all arrivals aged 12 or older need to have been vaccinated from December 1. In New York all visitors aged five or older must show proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, museums, entertainment venues and other attractions from December 14.
Those in our beleaguered travel industry cannot bring themselves to blame customers for cancelling. Kuoni’s Flex Plus policy allows its customers to cancel for any reason and Tui says that while cancellations are subject to normal booking conditions (ie you lose your money), it is recommending that those disinclined to travel amend fee-free to a later time. Virgin Holidays says that “where a customer is unable to travel for any reason, we offer as much choice and flexibility as possible to help them to change or amend their plans”.
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Paul Fuller, from Norfolk, tried to move his family Christmas in the Caribbean to Easter, but there was no availability. “So I’m looking at either cancelling or rescheduling,” he said.
Even our travel editor, Duncan Craig, has cancelled a planned ski trip next week. “I hated myself for doing this, but there’s simply too many opportunities for things to go wrong,” he said. “Fail my predeparture test coming back and our family Christmas is a write-off. Fail the day two PCR and it’s the same story. And since I had Covid a couple of weeks ago there’s the risk of viral debris influencing that test.”
Do these rules and restrictions limit the spread of the Omicron variant? Red lists certainly don’t, according to the World Health Organisation. “Blanket travel bans will not prevent the international spread, and they place a heavy burden on lives and livelihoods,” it says.
And what’s the point of taking a test before you fly home? With the UK infection rate so high, it starts to resemble a pointless bureaucratic whim that serves only to undermine confidence by threatening temporary exile.
The same applies to the day two test. “It would seem ludicrous to impose such a test following a Christmas party or a trip to a football match or the pub — yet the government insists on this after international travel, even from countries with lower levels of infection,” says Toby Kelly, the chief executive of Trailfinders.
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Last week Sajid Javid, the health secretary, told the Commons that restrictions could be removed when Omicron becomes the dominant variant. That’s a ray of hope in the December gloom — but will we all be left playing Russian roulette again when the next variant is discovered?
Have you cancelled a trip in the coming weeks — or are you happy to take the risk? Let us know in the comments below for your chance to win a £250 hotel stay
