LONDON buses and Godolphin share much in common: you wait ages for one before two arrive in tandem. No sooner had Librettist ended Godolphin’s group one drought in France on Sunday than Cherry Mix doubled the score in Germany.
Nevertheless, events in Ireland were to highlight just how costly has been Godolphin’s barren summer. Their older horses are finally up and running just as their chief rivals are flexing their juveniles’ muscles. After all, it wouldn’t be August without a Ballydoyle-trained favourite for the 2,000 Guineas.
Ballydoyle’s nascent star is Holy Roman Emperor, facile winner of the Phoenix Stakes, itself a Ballydoyle benefit in eight of the nine years since Aidan O’Brien first plundered it with Lavery. Yet Lavery’s anonymity as a three-year-old created a precedent to which subsequent Ballydoyle-trained winners conformed. Although Fasliyev retired prematurely, Minardi, Johannesburg, Spartacus and One Cool Cat were glorious flunks.
It takes an exception to make the rule, however, and when it came, it could hardly have been more striking. There is no disputing George Washington’s prowess on 2,000 Guineas day. The question is whether Holy Roman Emperor fits George Washington’s mould or that of Ballydoyle’s failures.
What united Ballydoyle’s previous winners of the Phoenix Stakes was that they were bred to be fast horses. Yet paradoxically, the gift of speed is not enough. It must stretch to a mile to render a racehorse desirable, and this proved beyond every Ballydoyle totem before George Washington.
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Even then, there were pedigree grounds for believing George Washington himself would fail in the transition. They were endorsed at the time by O’Brien, who replied to the stamina question by declaring: “I’ll believe it when I see it.” Furthermore, the colt was imposing and well-grown. He looked unlikely to make sufficient physical progress to maintain his superiority at three.
For George Washington, read Holy Roman Emperor. Another son of Danehill, this one is from even faster female roots. His physical prowess prompts O’Brien to describe him as “a real strong two-year-old” who may be loosed again in the six-furlong Prix Morny at Deauville on Sunday.
This is a significant detail in assessing Holy Roman Emperor. It marks the point at which his career diverges from that George Washington, who stepped up to seven furlongs next time out. In the context of Ballydoyle’s previous Phoenix Stakes winners, it seems Holy Roman Emperor is more in the mould of Fasliyev and Johannesburg. Both landed the Prix Morny; both were intrinsically fast horses.
The clues add up to a persuasive case against Holy Roman Emperor’s classic credentials. Another will emerge when O’Brien decides between the Dewhurst or Middle Park Stakes for the colt’s end-of-season target. The latter, again over six furlongs, would arouse even stronger suspicions.
On the credit side, Holy Roman Emperor is by a stallion whose achievements boggle the mind. Instances of his progeny exceeding all reasonable expectations have become too numerous to mention. But for his presence in the mix, Holy Roman Emperor could have been all but dismissed.