The recent rise in oil prices, buoyed by growing global demand and economic revival, “risks derailing the recovery” if it continues, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.
The IEA, the Paris-based agency, which advises 28 industrialised economies, raised its estimate for global oil demand this year by 210,000 barrels per day, and for next year by 140,000 barrels per day “following stronger-than-expected preliminary data” for North America and “buoyant demand” in Asia and the Middle East.
“Not only that, but oil demand itself would rebound much more slowly were the price rally sustained into 2010,” the agency said, in its monthly report.
Global demand is now well on track for year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, which would be the first rise since the second quarter of 2008.
The 2010 rise now forecasted represents a 1.6 per cent increase in demand to 86.2 million barrels a day. The agency said that much of the demand was driven by China and Saudi Arabia.
Advertisement
The price of oil has risen by 77 per cent this year. This morning New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in December, slid 36 cents to to $78.92 per barrel. Brent North Sea crude for December delivery was down 25 cents to $77.70.
Crude futures climbed yesterday on China’s strengthening economy.
The IEA is more bullish about the prospects for oil consumption than the two other major oil forecasters, the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which released reports earlier this week.
OPEC raised its 2010 demand forecast slightly but said that fuel consumption may not return to pre-crisis levels, and the IEA predicted less of a rise in 2010 in demand in the United States, the world’s largest energy user.