Have they gone away? The answer to this pithy question will have significant implications for the peace process and the future of the Northern Ireland Assembly.
There are conflicting accounts about what role, if any, Provisional IRA members played in the murder of Kevin McGuigan in the Short Strand area of Belfast two weeks ago.
According to George Hamilton, the Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, some structures of the Provisional IRA still exist, but the organisation is not on a war footing and it remains committed to the peace process.
Sinn Fein has said the IRA was not involved in the murder of McGuigan. Gerry Adams, the party’s president, has said the IRA is gone and not coming back. He has described the speculation surrounding McGuigan’s murder as mischievous.
Unionist parties in Northern Ireland and most mainstream parties in the Republic are calling for further clarity on any potential involvement of the IRA. Peter Robinson, first minister of Northern Ireland, has said that if the investigation of the McGuigan murder proves that IRA members were involved, then Sinn Fein should be excluded from serving on the Northern Ireland Executive.
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In the years leading up to and immediately after the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the Dublin and London governments tolerated a certain amount of “constructive ambiguity” from leaders of the republican movement, particularly Mr Adams. While speaking the language of peace, every now and then Mr Adams and his Sinn Fein colleagues would pay their respects to fallen IRA members or commemorate IRA activities.
Even though it was a source of huge tension for the unionist community, this constructive ambiguity was considered necessary to prevent the republican movement from splintering and ensuring the peace process remained intact.
As the Good Friday Agreement became embedded in the institutional framework of Northern Ireland, a more durable peace emerged. Power sharing between unionists and republicans, once unthinkable during the Troubles came to pass. In 2005, it looked as if the final piece of the jigsaw was put in place: republican and loyalist paramilitaries agreed to fully decommission their weapons.
In May of last year during a rally organised by Sinn Fein in the Divis Flats area of Belfast to protest against the arrest of Mr Adams in relation to the murder of Jean McConville in 1972, Bobby Storey, a senior member of Sinn Fein, told the assembled crowd, “we haven’t gone away you know”.
The comment drew comparisons to a reference to the IRA made by Mr Adams almost two decades ago. Following an upsurge in loyalist street violence, a Sinn Fein supporter had interrupted a speech by Mr Adams at Belfast’s City Hall. “Bring back the IRA,” the republican said. “They haven’t gone away, you know,” Mr Adams replied.
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The investigation into the murder of McGuigan will determine to what extent, if any, the IRA played in his death. The outcome could potentially have ramifications. If, as Mr Hamilton says, the IRA still exists, albeit not on a war footing, then the obvious question is why does it still exist?
It is also important to know what relationship, if any, IRA members have with Sinn Fein. The peace process will never be complete as long as paramilitary groups are not fully disbanded. Now, more than ever, leadership is needed from the republican movement.
They must reassure the public that they remain fully committed to the peace process regardless of what emerges during the investigation. The days of tolerating any sort of constructive ambiguity are long gone.