When Achilles’ mother dipped him in the River Styx, she thought she was doing the best to protect her child. However, growing up with the knowledge that you are invulnerable can lead to a level of complacency and arrogance that damages your relationships and clouds your judgement.
This week Boris Johnson’s Achilles’ heel was laid bare when he took his relationship with not only the public but his party for granted and it will be an uphill battle to regain that trust.
Speaking to one 2019 red wall MP, they told me: “I think the PM’s career balances on North Shropshire.”
Despite by-elections being notoriously difficult to predict and often full of surprises, this one in particular seems to have more riding on it for Boris Johnson than first expected.
I asked the MP who they thought would be most worried about the result to which they replied: “It will be a mixture. Those facing the Lib Dems with metropolitan middle class electorates will be very worried. The red wall 2019-ers are already having doubts. Conversations in the tearoom have already turned to ‘Who next?’”
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The names floating in the members’ tearoom are the usual suspects — Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Priti Patel — but one senior Tory MP told me their money is on Truss.
Describing the atmosphere in the tearoom this week as “awful”, they went on to say: “It will be bloody Liz Truss — that could see me off. She’s very popular with Tory members and the 2019 intake but she’s f***ing awful and the actual electorate aren’t going to vote for her, can you imagine her appeal in the red wall? Anyone half rational would recoil. She’s going to win, become leader, and make Kier [Starmer] PM.”
Truss has been hailed a success for her consistent high position in polling on the popularity of Conservative ministers among Tory party members, and for international trade deals she has struck up with other nations - she is in some ways the poster woman for global Britain.
The MP goes on to describe Truss by saying: “she’s about as principled as Boris but without the charm. Liz can’t win the red wall — and will struggle with the blue wall — it could be the most epic defeat ever seen”.
Speaking to another Tory MP, they were adamant the Conservatives would not win next week’s North Shropshire by-election after the public outrage over Downing Street Christmas parties held in lockdown last year.
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Despite his 80-seat majority, the prime minister will be expecting a significant rebellion at the vote on new Covid restrictions to curb the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19. But this Tory MP told me they expected to see some more resignations on Tuesday after the vote as members are up in arms about the damage restrictions will do to businesses and the economy.
“The tearoom yesterday was worse than under Theresa May”, they said. “2019-ers are very nervous, they’ve never known anything like it, they’ve never known a change of leadership or anything of the sort. It is pretty dire and as bad as I’ve ever known it.”
It would be too early to assume Johnson could not survive “partygate” but the calls for a replacement leader are growing ever louder and perhaps the accumulation of scandal after scandal — Paterson, Peppa Pig and parties (the three p’s) — might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Mhari Aurora is Red Box reporter for The Times
ALSO IN RED BOX TODAY:
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•Henry Hill: Picking fights with judges isn’t a good look for Dominic Raab
•Sacha Lord: Increasing VAT for the hospitality sector will hurt the red wall
•Jo Casebourne: Let’s make Christmas the most wonderful time of the year for all children
