TRYING to predict what will happen in a modern pentathlon competition at the Olympics is rather like trying to do a long-range weather forecast — there are too many chaotic butterflies flapping their wings to give any firm predictions. Over a season, the cream rises to the top and the Great Britain duo of Georgie Harland and Kate Allenby are right up there as world No 1 and winner of the last pre-Olympic event respectively. However, today is about ten hours of competition and anything can happen before someone takes the title of Olympic champion from me.
The physical events do, at least, provide some predictability. The women know to within a second or two what they are capable of swimming and although the handicap start adds excitement to the final run, the athletes will know approximately what time gaps they can defend or make up. Georgie has the best biathlon in world pentathlon and with these guaranteed points she will always have a great foundation. But it will be in the skill events that the medals are decided.
The first event, pistol shooting, will test emotional control. Kate and Georgie are vastly experienced. Kate has performed under the Olympic spotlight before, winning bronze in 2000, and although Georgie learnt a lot as reserve in Sydney, this may be the hardest test of her credentials as favourite for gold.
The fencing is a one-hit competition in which you fence all the other athletes. This format throws up unexpected results and it is important to break the inevitable runs of defeats early. Kate is a fantastic fencer, with a left-handed stance and aggressive demeanour.
Pentathlon rides provide the ultimate in unpredictability, with horses unknown to the athletes drawn from a hat, and only 20 minutes to strike up a partnership with your mount before competition. It often sees many a name tumbling off the leaderboard amid a shower of coloured poles and the occasional crunching fall. This event suits the Britons, both graduates of the Pony Club, which has a fine record in coaxing the steeds around.
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And so, by 4pm this afternoon, the forecast will be clearer, with the points so far converted into seconds on the running course, which allows the better runners to know by exactly how much they must beat the athletes ahead of them in the competition. So, who else is likely to feature in this final mix? Zsussa Voros, the world champion, starts as one of the favourites. In the most recent international, she led after the shooting, fencing and swimming, but a clear round in the showjumping by Kate put her into the lead and she was able to hold off the Hungarian in the run to win. Georgie put in a solid performance to finish third.
Other contenders include Mary Beth Iagorashvili, of the United States, who finished fourth in Sydney and whose husband, Vakhtang, finished ninth in the men’s competition here yesterday, Paulina Boenisz, from Poland, fifth four years ago, and Tatiana Mouratova and Olesya Velichko, the Russians. The running ability of Viktoriya Tereshchuk, of Ukraine, will be apparent if she is still in the frame.
Kim Reisner was unlucky not to qualify for the 2000 Games, despite being the German No 1, but she will be out to make amends. Claudia Corsini could figure, not least because the horses for the showjumping come from her native Italy, and it would be unwise to write off Katalin Partics, originally from Hungary but competing for Greece.
Dealing with the obvious pressures, which build as the big day approaches, as well as the inevitable tension that arises from being at the same time close friends and team-mates but realistic rivals for the greatest prize in our sport, is difficult. Here our athletes will be helped by having around them the same people who were so successful with us in Sydney. These include Jan Bartu, our performance director, and Dominic Mahony, both experienced Olympic medal-winners.
Georgie has had Em Bright, my room-mate from our Gold Coast training camp, sharing with her in Font-Romeu. She and Jo Clarke, our talented reserve, have ensured that the atmosphere is as light as this Athenian heat will allow. They organised an alternative opening ceremony for the team, who were still training in the French Pyrénées, complete with moussaka and dancing girls.
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Pentathlon was designed by Baron Pierre de Coubertin to “test a man’s moral qualities as much as his physical resources and skills”. It is the intensity of this mental focus that must switch instantly from the almost trance-like exclusion of all external stimuli required for the shooting, to the ability to react to (or preferably anticipate) any movement of an opponent’s fencing blade or feet, through the vagaries of the ride to the mental toughness needed in the physical events.
Preparation is, as always, the key to producing the mental strength required to achieve these shifts in focus under the harshest of spotlights. Our athletes are well prepared; Kate is a wonderful all-round pentathlete, solid in every event, and Georgie on her day can be unbeatable. So if all those butterflies can keep still and let the form pan out, we could be in for a marvellous evening.