TWENTY-FIVE European leaders might have struggled through two summits to agree Europe’s first constitution, but that is likely to be the easy part.
The constitution now has to be ratified within two years in each member state, either by votes in parliament or referendums. With rising hostility to the EU across the Continent, the only certainty is that, in many countries, governments will face turbulent campaigns to get the vote they want.
At least eight countries are set to hold referendums, but the number is growing steadily and could reach 20. Ireland, Britain, Denmark, Portugal, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Czech Republic are to hold plebiscites, while Spain and Finland have hinted that they will, too.
Ireland and Denmark are committed by their own constitutions to hold a referendum. By contrast, Germany is banned by its post-Nazi constitution from holding any referendums. But many other governments face almost irresistible public pressure to hold a vote.
In Eurosceptic Poland, with its turbulent politics, it is unlikely that any government would have the authority to ratify the constitution without a vote. In France, President Chirac is under mounting pressure to hold a referendum, with his own Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Raffarin, calling for one.
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In some countries, such as Luxembourg and Portugal, the people are guaranteed to support the constitution. But in many countries, opposition is likely to be very strong. The Czech Republic is planning to hold a referendum because its parliament has so many Eurosceptic members that it would not ratify the constitution.
The Netherlands, too, is becoming increasingly Eurosceptic, with a rise in the number of Eurosceptic MEPs returned in the European election. There is a powerful Eurosceptic movement in Denmark, which remains out of the euro, and observers there say that a “no” vote is possible.
But it is Britain that is likely to cause the most trouble. Opinion polls show that about 80 per cent of the public are opposed to the constitution. With the media overwhelmingly against it, the Government will have an uphill struggle to ratify it.
Denis McShane, the Europe Minister, said recently that Britain would not hold a referendum until 2006, after a general election.
Countries outside the EU usually vote to join, but, once in, they usually vote against any further integration.
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To come into effect, the constitution has to be ratified by every country. If one or more has trouble ratifying it, then the leaders of all 25 countries must hold an emergency summit to decide what to do.