This year’s general election was catastrophic for Labour. The party won 37 seats in 2011 with 19.4 per cent of the vote. This time its support plummeted to 6.6 per cent and it returned just seven seats, the minimum required for speaking rights in the Dail.
There are some who will argue that Joan Burton’s party deserved to do so badly. It made too many promises in the run-up to the 2011 election and wasn’t able to keep them all when in government with Fine Gael. When the public became concerned with the impact of austerity measures, Labour’s response was to point out that it was not the dominant party in the coalition, claiming that Ireland would be a lot worse without it.
In the run-up to this year’s election it tried to win back support by rowing back on certain austerity measures, but it seemed too little, too late for many voters. The party also decided not to apologise for its broken promises, but instead to challenge people on the doorsteps to name them. Had Ms Burton apologised, she may have succeeded in pushing the issue to one side and would not have had to address it repeatedly throughout the campaign.
There are some who have enjoyed watching the demise of Labour. The voters have given their verdict and it must be respected, but there is still a question of whether this country will benefit from Labour’s crushing defeat. The answer would seem to be no. The party has put the national interest first many times in its history and has shown itself capable of governing responsibly when the opportunity arises. It has followed a centre-left path, naturally, but has recognised that sometimes it is better to compromise to achieve reforms in government, rather than sitting in opposition complaining.
The party has also pushed through social reforms that make a difference to people’s lives — the marriage equality referendum being an obvious example. For these reasons, it is important that Labour remains a feature in the Irish political landscape.
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There is no doubt that these are difficult times for the party. Talk of an existential crisis is not misplaced and party members must be still reeling at the fate that has befallen them.
However, all is not lost — far from it. Things could be worse. The seven seats it won not only means that it will retain speaking rights in the 32nd Dail, but it also means that Labour has one more seat than Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit, which aims to usurp it.
What happens over the coming year or so will be vital. The worst thing that the party could do is panic. Yes, it was a crushing defeat, but a calm and measured response is required. The comebacks of Fianna Fail in this election and Fine Gael after its disastrous results in 2002 show how resilient the mainstream political parties are. While Labour does not have the same reach of the big two parties, it does have well-established roots across most constituencies.
Time is also a healer. Just as many voters were willing to forgive Fianna Fail, if Labour gets its house in order, the same is likely to happen. In that respect, the choice of a new leader — if Joan Burton steps aside — and policies are important.
Jack O’Connor, president of Siptu, said that Alan Kelly’s personality was “not ideal for leadership”. The deputy Labour leader has ambition and an appetite for hard work. He will be a key player for the party, but the more measured, tactical styles of Brendan Howlin or Seán Sherlock seem better suited to the task of rebuilding the party.
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As both Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin will testify, that job will require hard work across the country. The fact that Mr Sherlock has fewer miles on the clock will be an advantage for him. But Mr Howlin’s experience and acumen offer considerable assets for party members to consider.
In terms of policy, there will be an inevitable temptation to go toe-to-toe with AAA-PBP, but that would be a mistake. Ultimately, the Social Democrats represent a greater threat to Labour.
Of course, Labour has to re-establish an independent identity — something it failed to do during the election campaign — but a lurch too far left will alienate the liberal middle-class voters that have been so important to the party in the past.
The party must, as Mr O’Connor has pointed out, change its message and move its focus away from social issues such as the repeal of the Eight Amendment. The narrow focus on such issues might go down well with the media, but there is evidence that such matters do not inspire voters to support the party at the ballot box.
There will be tough times ahead. There will be months when the party’s relevance is questioned by the media, when its future will be called into doubt. TDs need to ignore such talk. In the past the party has had a tendency to be far too worried about what journalists have to say. They need to have trust in the appeal of the Labour brand, which has prevailed for the past century.
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There is no panacea for the party’s problems. Labour should not expect a surge in the polls any time soon, but that’s not what its members should be worrying about. It needs to get back to basics, focusing on good organisation and administration, good people on the ground — nurturing a mix of new and former candidates — and sound policies for issues that matter to the whole electorate.
It’s a long road ahead but, if TDs and senators keep their heads, there is a future for the Labour party.