Connacht v Glasgow
What is at stake:
The Sportsground is home today to the archetypal winner-takes-all clash. With Leinster unlikely to slip up at home to Treviso, Connacht know they need a victory to guarantee a home semi-final, while Glasgow are in the same boat.
Connacht have lost seven games this season, but just once at home – illustrating just how valuable, in playing terms, a Galway semi-final could be.
In financial terms another sold out match would be a bonus, but Pat Lam will likely not be invoking the bottom line in his pre-match speech.
Connacht come into the game on the back of three defeats from their last four games in all competitions, but those defeats have all been on the road. Their last home match – victory against Munster, was a rousing affair, and once more highlighted just how difficult it is to go to Galway and return with points in your pocket.
If anyone can join Ulster in doing so, however, it’s Glasgow. The Scots are defending champions, and despite a slow start to the competition they head to Galway on a run of nine wins and look a good bet to make it back to back titles.
Talking point:
Connacht have for months been compared, rightly or wrongly, to Leicester City – the English Premier League champions.
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The big question now is whether they can go the whole hog and get across the line, and check into The Silverware Hotel, alongside Claudio Ranieri’s gang.
While Leicester’s odds at the bookmakers were 5000-1 in pre-season, the probability of them winning the title was likely far less than that.
Few believed those odds were unrealistic, though, and a quick scan of a Connacht fan website showed their fans didn’t fancy their odds either – with predictions ranging from the most optimistic fifth-place finish, right down to tenth.
Given their average finish of ninth in the past few years, sealing a semi-final spot with two games to go is a great return.
But, Leicester’s true glory came when they performed under the greatest of pressure, and that’s now what Connacht must do.
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They are against a side that finished second bottom just five years ago, and won the title last season. What better opposition to prove they’re capable of beating – when it really matters.
Tiernan O’Halloran and Kieran Marmion will win their 100th cap for Connacht today, while Robbie Henshaw – who sat out the trip to Italy last week – could be making his last home appearance for the province before heading to Leinster in the summer.
Pat Lam has made nine personnel changes following last week’s defeat, with Henshaw joined in a new look backs division by Bundee Aki, Matt Healy and AJ MacGinty.
Finlay Bealham, the Connacht prop, will become the only player to feature in all 29 games this season, while John Muldoon skippers the side from No 8 with Ultan Dillane and Aly Muldowney ready for the mother of all back row battles.
Just like Connacht, Glasgow are losing one of their star players this summer – with Leone Nakarawa flying south to join Top 14 side Racing 92.
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Recently described as the competition’s ‘offload king’, Nakarawa has pace, strength and gifted handling skills – the type of opponent Dillane will relish going head to head with.
Despite last week’s 70-10 hammering of Zebre, Glasgow are going with a whole new back three with Stuart Hogg at full-back, Tommy Seymour and Lee Jones. Finn Russell replaces Duncan Weir at out half, with Ali Price at scrum half and a front row shuffle seeing Gordon Reid, Fraser Brown and Sila Puafisi all starting. It’s the kind of squad depth Lam could only dream of.
What they said:
Tiernan O’Halloran: “This is the first time ever for myself, but also for the history of Connacht, that there is something to play for going into the last game of the season.
“In the past we were in the middle to the bottom of the table and it was just about getting that last game played, and maybe giving a few runs to lads who wouldn’t have played throughout the season. But at this stage, to be going into a game knowing that if you beat Glasgow you can guarantee yourself a home semi-final, there’s a lot at stake.
“Glasgow are the reigning champions and they are back at the top of the table now. We are under no illusions how tough it is going to be. They always have 15 internationals on the field at any stage. We can’t afford to give away soft tries.”
Gregor Townsend: “Connacht play an expansive style of rugby and have a good home record, so we’ll have to produce an eighty minute performance if we’re to secure a home play-off.
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“The players have worked extremely hard over the last few weeks and we have genuine competition for places throughout the squad.
“We are aware of the importance of this fixture and will be doing all we can to come back from Ireland with a win.”
Teams: Connacht: Tiernan O’Halloran, Niyi Adeolokun, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Matt Healy, AJ MacGinty, Kieran Marmion, Ronan Loughney, Tom McCartney, Finlay Bealham, Ultan Dillane, Aly Muldowney, Sean O’Brien, Jake Heenan, John Muldoon. Replacements: Dave Heffernan, JP Cooney, Rodney Ah You, Quinn Roux, Eoin McKeon, John Cooney, Shane O’Leary, Peter Robb
Glasgow: Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour, Alex Dunbar, Peter Horne, Lee Jones, Finn Russell, Ali Price, Gordon Reid, Fraser Brown, Sila Puafisi, Leone Nakarawa, Jonny Gray, Rob Harley, Ryan Wilson, Josh Strauss Replacements: Pat MacArthur, Jerry Yanuyanutawa, Zander Fagerson, Tim Swinson, Simone Favaro, Grayson Hart, Mark Bennett, Sean Lamont
Ospreys v Ulster
What is at stake:
To ensure control of their fate Ulster must produce a bonus-point win at Liberty Stadium, but a plain victory is likely going to be enough. A defeat would allow Scarlets to leapfrog them into the Guinness PRO12 play-offs but that would require the Welsh side to win in Thomond Park against Munster. Should both Ulster and Scarlets win then the only chance the men from Llanelli have of making the play-offs is to get a bonus point and hope that Les Kiss’s team do not.
If the teams finish level on points then Scarlets would be ranked higher due to games won. To cap it off, Ospreys themselves are in need of a win to make it into the Champions Cup should Munster lose.
Talking point:
Last weekend’s win over Leinster will count for nothing if Ulster fail to produce the goods today, and given the calibre of players available, the province should be expected to consistently win when the pressure is on. Mental cracks have shown up time and again in Ulster’s season, particularly as they have lost multiple games from winning positions, but they have won three in a row now and are starting to gel at the right time.
Ulster have 16 internationals in their match-day squad which includes ascending talents like Iain Henderson, Stuart Olding and Stuart McCloskey while Paddy Jackson, the out half, is starting to emerge out of the shadow of Ruan Pienaar, his South African half back partner.
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Despite Ulster’s status as one of the top outfits in the PRO12 over the past five years, the province is viewed as an underachiever having lost PRO12 and European Cup finals and three PRO12 semi-finals since 2011.
The recruitment of Les Kiss, the former Ireland defence coach, as director of rugby showed a real intention to finally land some silverware and reaching the semi-finals, at least, would be an encouraging reflection of the Australian’s first year in charge.
Team news:
Craig Gilroy is again named in the starting XV after a late withdrawal prior to last weekend’s win over Leinster as Kiss keeps faith with the team that has run all week in training. Ospreys include Owen Watkin, Dan Biggar and Rhys Webb among the backs while Sam Underhill, their breakout star of the season, will be a key figure in the Welsh pack.
What they had to say:
Les Kiss, Ulster director of rugby: “We know the permutations that exist. Bonus points elsewhere can put us under real pressure. Ospreys will be absolutely chasing it and we know they need it [to qualify for next season’s Champions Cup].
“A try bonus for us is the deal to put it to bed. We understand that. I will talk to the key leaders before the game and if there’s information they get during the game, they will know how to handle it. They’ve got that capacity as professional, good rugby players. If there’s 20 [minutes] to go and we know that Munster have won the game we can certainly temper some of the decisions we’ll need to make. If we get a penalty we can go for the poles and not risk certain things. If it’s in the balance we’ll be making informed decisions.”
Steve Tandy, Ospreys head coach: “To bounce back like we have [to win] these last three games with a young squad and a full team of experienced, senior guys missing speaks volumes for the character of this squad. The desire and application of a team that has an average age of 23, 24, is outstanding and they’ve shown what being an Osprey is all about in recent weeks as they’ve grown on and off the field. We need more of that this week now, we want the boys to be relentless, to know their roles and to be clinical.”
Teams: Ospreys: D Evans; B John, O Watkin, J Matavesi, E Walker, D Biggar, R Webb (capt); N Smith, S Baldwin, D Arhip; R Bernardo, R Thornton; D Lydiate, S Underhill, J King. Replacements: S Otten, G Thomas, A Jarvis, J Bearman, O Cracknell, B Leonard, S Davies, T Grabham.
Ulster: J Payne; A Trimble, L Marshall, S McCloskey, C Gilroy; P Jackson, R Pienaar; C Black, R Best (capt), R Lutton, P Browne, F van der Merwe, I Henderson, C Henry, S Reidy. Replacements: R Herring, K McCall, A Warwick, R Diack, R Wilson, P Marshall, S Olding, D Cave.
Referee: M Mitrea (FIR). Kick-off: 3pm, Liberty Stadium (live on Sky Sports 1).
Munster v Scarlets
What is at stake:
Victory of any description guarantees Munster a place in next season’s Champions Cup, however, Scarlets are also chasing a first-ever play-off place and must win to take advantage of any slip-up by Ulster.
Meanwhile, Ospreys take on Ulster at Liberty Stadium and are motivated by the chance of overtaking Munster, should they lose to Scarlets, which ties together the games in Limerick and Swansea.
Talking point:
Will Anthony Foley’s last game in charge of Munster provide a backs-to-the wall victory or will the ten-year anniversary of the province’s first European title be marred by their failure to qualify for the competition that means so much to them?
What transpires at Thomond Park this afternoon will be felt for a long time to come and with over 17,000 tickets sold it is clear that the home support, who have largely stayed away, have recognised their team’s hour of need.
The province’s financial woes have reached the point where it is believed that the IRFU will provide them with a bailout to make up for the shortfall of gate income over the past season, but without Champions Cup rugby to offer, Munster tickets would prove an even harder sell.
Foley’s team have struggled with expectations this season and the province badly need to finish the season on a high and usher in the Johan Erasmus era as quickly as possible.
In the melodrama of Foley’s demotion, it has been slightly overlooked that recruiting Erasmus as director of rugby is a serious coup for the province. What part Foley will opt for in the new regime is full of intrigue.
Will he play the good soldier in a bid to extend his stay beyond June 2017 when his contract expires or will he walk quietly into the night either now or next summer? Foley has vowed to remain in the job, but all season he has done his utmost to take the pressure off his young, and inexperienced players, and if he has privately taken the decision to leave it would make no sense to announce it ahead of this game.
As for the players themselves, victory today would provide two fundamental achievements. Firstly, it would give them a tangible reward for a season which has been full of growing pains as young players have been given more opportunities while older members of the squad have been thrust into leadership roles that they have been unaccustomed to.
More importantly, it also sends out a message to Erasmus about who is worth keeping because there is no doubt that the former Springbok captain will use his contacts and inside knowledge of South African rugby to recruit key personnel for next season.
Team news:
Foley has opted for the exact same team and replacements that secured a bonus-point win over Edinburgh last weekend. It is the first time this season that Foley has named an unchanged starting XV and it contains nine international players, including Dave Kilcoyne, who wins his 100th cap for the province. Rory Scannell, the centre who has made a real breakthrough this season, makes his 26th appearance of the campaign.
What they had to say:
Anthony Foley, Munster head coach: “There hasn’t been an issue around the group at all, in terms of preparation, in terms of coaches and players knowing where they are coming or going [after the season]. Everyone has rocked up and pitched in everywhere. We don’t have any issues behind the scenes. Everyone is trying to make sure we win the game. It’s unfortunate to not go any further in the competition, but you get what you deserve out of the year.”
CJ Stander, Munster captain: “It makes a big difference if we come to the stadium and there’s even one more person in the crowd who wants to be here. I always get goosebumps when I run onto the pitch and I can hear that the Munster supporters are there.”
Teams: Munster: S Zebo; A Conway, F Saili, R Scannell, K Earls; J Holland, C Murray; D Kilcoyne, N Scannell, S Archer; D Foley, B Holland; D O’Callaghan, T O’Donnell, CJ Stander. Replacements: M Sherry, J Cronin, J Ryan, R Copeland, J O’Donoghue, D Williams, I Keatley, R O’Mahony.
Referee: N Owens (WRU) Kick-off: 3pm RDS (live on S4C).
Leinster v Treviso
What is at stake:
A bonus-point win will deliver Leinster a home semi-final regardless of what happens between Connacht and Glasgow Warriors, but that result will affect whether the blue province finishes first or second.
It is possible that Leinster could still claim a home semi-final without a bonus point, but that possibility is fraught with risk.
Talking point:
Despite the scale of Leinster’s defeat to Ulster in Belfast last weekend, it will not prove terminal to the province’s ambition to win the Guinness PRO12. Since their internationals returned at the end of the Six Nations, Leinster have won two and lost two with see-saw moments across all four games that could have impacted on those results.
From a team perspective, Leinster have struggled to build up fluency in their play since the end of March due to two weekends without a game because of the Champions Cup quarter-finals and semi-finals. Leo Cullen, the head coach, also took a decision to rest a number of internationals for the Edinburgh game three weeks ago, which meant that many of his first-choice players had no game in the month between the Munster and Ulster fixtures.
Now after a stop-start schedule, Leinster need to recover their rhythm in order to pose a serious threat to Glasgow, who look unstoppable at the moment.
Team news:
Leinster will be without Cian Healy (neck and knee), Josh van der Flier (ankle), Luke Fitzgerald (knee ligament) and Ian Madigan (hamstring). Meanwhile, Sean O’Brien has suffered a set-back in his recovery from a hamstring tear and the province will release an update on his status next week.
Leo Cullen, the head coach, has made four changes to the team that lost to Ulster. Eoin Reddan starts at scrum half, Mike Ross replaces Tadhg Furlong at tight-head prop, Jordi Murphy takes Van der Flier’s place at openside flanker and Mick Kearney comes into the second row at the expense of Hayden Triggs.
What they had to say:
Leo Cullen, Leinster head coach: “Some [front-line] guys didn’t play that game against Edinburgh. The fact that there were breaks [in the schedule] for the quarter-final and semi-final of Europe, we made a conscious decision [to rest] some guys that had been carrying niggles and had a heavy workload going through all the way from the World Cup to Six Nations.
“Sometimes you have to go backwards to go forwards and that’s what we did. Did we go backwards against Ulster? Were those guys shy of the game time and just that little but off? Sometimes that’s all it takes.
“With the whole scheme of the season, that’s a call that we made. Extra pressure is piled on you when you don’t get a result against Ulster. That’s something you have to take. We make these decisions because we think that’s the best thing for us.
“You can’t buy the time. I am in the situation I’m in, I can either say ‘boohoo, I’m inexperienced’ or I can just get on with the job and I’d rather just get on with the job. Figure out why we’re winning games, figure out why we’re losing games and come up with a clear plan for the players and try to manage the squad as best as possible.”
Teams: Leinster: R Kearney, I Nacewa (capt), G Ringrose, B Te’o, D Kearney; J Sexton, E Reddan; J McGrath, R Strauss, M Ross; D Toner, M Kearney; R Ruddock, J Murphy, J Heaslip. Replacements: S Cronin, P Dooley, T Furlong, R Molony, D Ryan, L McGrath, C Marsh, N Reid.
Treviso: J Hayward, L Nitoglia, T Iannone, A Sgarbi, A Esposito; L McLean, E Gori; M Zanusso, O Gega, S Ferrari; M Fuser, F Paulo; F Minto, A Zanni (capt), A Steyn. Replacements: L Big, M Muccignat, S Manu, M Lazzaroni, A De Marchi, A Lucchese, J Ambrosini, E Bacchin.
Referee: B Whitehouse (WRU). Kick-off: 3pm RDS (not televised).