China is now the world’s most prolific carbon emitter. But the average Chinese person consumes much less energy than his or her European and American counterparts. Nevertheless, the biggest emitter must assume responsibility for averting dangerous climate change. There is nowhere to hide.
China’s efforts are often unappreciated in the West. Developed countries want it to do more, while China feels it is doing as much as it can and that technically capable Western countries, with their comprehensive infrastructure, are not doing nearly enough. China points to the failure of developed countries to fulfil their emission reduction obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. Europeans and Americans don’t want to hear this — some feel all the West’s efforts will not amount to much if Chinese emissions continue on their present trajectory.
The mutual stand-off seems to be the opening position as the nations of the world get ready for Copenhagen. One way to break this impasse would be for the affluent parts of China to adopt emissions reduction targets in the next five years. The richest areas — Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing — have the capacity to do more. They have more people than many European countries, so commitments from them should be seen positively.
Since 2006 China has put together impressive programmes to fight global warming. As a developing country that still has to fill out its power systems, rail and road networks, ports and airports, as well as an industrial infrastructure, its leaders feel that China cannot pinpoint a carbon emissions reduction target that can be achieved in the next few years. It needs room to achieve its development goals and become a middle-income society. Thus, its policies cut energy intensity — emissions per unit of GDP — while total carbon emissions continue to rise, albeit at a much slower rate.
To achieve its aim of cutting energy intensity by 20 per cent by 2010, the Government has targeted state-owned companies, primarily because they can be made to comply and are the biggest energy users. By reducing energy intensity alone, China can save 620 million tonnes of coal in five years, the equivalent to cutting 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon emissions. In contrast, the EU’s commitment under the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce emissions by 300 million tonnes by 2012. So China compares well with European efforts, even though it has no binding reduction target under the treaty.
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In China’s next five-year plan, from 2011 to 2015, deeper cuts are on the cards. President Hu Jintao announced at the UN Summit on Climate Change in New York in September that China will set multipronged carbon intensity targets that are relative to GDP. These will not only cut energy intensity but also increase zero and low-carbon energy production — and create more carbon sink forests.
The pace and scale of the expected change are breathtaking. For example, by 2020, China’s share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption will rise to 15 per cent from today’s 7 per cent. Hundreds of billions are being invested in wind, solar, small hydro, biomass and nuclear power.
The race to avert dangerous climate change is urgent. The glaciers in Tibet are shrinking and will affect China’s water supply. China knows it will suffer many extremes — intense heatwaves, storms, rainfall, floods and droughts — thereby changing regional weather and agricultural patterns. Sea-level rise caused by the melting of polar ice sheets could destroy China’s delta regions, today’s major population and economic centres.
Other measures to improve energy efficiency include new fuel-economy standards for vehicles, improved building codes, investments in ultra-efficient conventional coal power plants and new grids, energy and fuel prices reform and fiscal incentives for renewable power. Innovations in areas such as thin-film solar panels, battery technologies, hybrid vehicles and carbon capture are also on the cards.
Policies and plans are one thing but there are legitimate concerns that they are not a guarantee of timely implementation throughout the country. Indeed, a critical part of China’s challenge is to develop greater legal and regulatory capacity that can be consistently applied. Still, China’s current policies do offer positive hope for continuing progress.
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It is too early to say for sure when China’s carbon emissions will peak. Debate among Chinese experts indicates that it could occur between 2030 and 2035, when the country has had the chance to build its infrastructure. After this emissions could start to decline.
New science on the unexpectedly fast pace of glacial melt and how climate change is exacerbating other environmental problems, such as acidification of the ocean and biodiversity loss, should wake up the world’s political leaders. Their negotiations are not sufficiently focused on reducing coal burning, which is the most serious source of global warming. Coal usage lies at the heart of the world’s industrial structure, which makes it hard to scale back. Given the urgency, waiting for new technology won’t do.
This is where the West must move first because it can decide now not to build more coal plants. With this commitment, it can then negotiate with China and others to get them to reduce coal usage within the next decade. At the same time, Western countries can provide them with access to technology and funding to ensure that new coal plants built in the developing world are ultra-efficient.
Everyone must also invest in other sources of power. Developed nations and the better-off developing nations must underwrite the costs of enabling the poorest countries to build renewable power systems. China and the West can be partners with a big and bold mission, one that is fairly calibrated to give China the room to finish building basic infrastructure.
Christine Loh is the CEO of Civic Exchange, a public policy think-tank in Hong Kong. In 2007 she was named a Hero of the Environment by Time