STATISTICS arouse suspicion when applied to sport. They can apparently prove anything. Sadly for rugby in Wales and across the four home unions, statistics are damning.
There have been a grand total of 341 Tests between home union teams and the TriNations teams since the All Blacks became the first international side to tour here in 1905. The home teams have won a measly 74 times, a success rate well below 25%.
Wales were off to a decent start with wins against New Zealand in 1905 and 1908, although it is best to draw a veil over Wales-New Zealand games since then because Wales have won only three from 28, a record actually better than that of Ireland or Scotland.
Wales have fared better against Australia with 10 victories from 32 games, although even that statistic indicates that the battle of the hemispheres over the years has been something of a rout.
That may well be why Welsh supporters can hardly begin to dream that their team could win even one of the Test matches against Australia in the next three weeks, let alone dare to dream that Wales could take the series. Historically, South Africa and New Zealand have always been more challenging opponents but, since the early 1990s, the Australians are almost on a par and anyone who believes that the Welsh assignment this month will be anything other than ferocious is living in a dream world.
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However, what is also certain is that in terms of potential this Welsh squad is one of the strongest of all time. Wales have depth throughout the team, the confidence of the Grand Slam, and they also play in a style that will suit the fast tracks in Australia.
History has already been turned on its head in a rather odd way. British and Irish teams traditionally travel south for these tours shorn of a horde of leading players, but it is Australia who will be missing key men in the next few weeks — Kurtley Beale and James O’Connor, the two richly-talented backs, and James Horwill, the influential captain of the Queensland Reds and of Australia, will all miss the series. The Australians have also lacked a real shakedown fixture whereas Wales may find it relatively easy to pick up the threads of their Grand Slam momentum.
Granted, Quade Cooper is back from the sad injury he suffered against Wales in the bronze medal match of the World Cup, and Wales will clearly be targeting him to try to prevent him re-establishing himself. But with Cooper set to link up with Will Genia at half-back, and with the splendid Digby Ioane popping up all over in attack, the Welsh defence will be tested to the limit.
Up front, Australia are rarely dominant in the scrum, although a world-class hooker such as Stephen Moore will ensure that they are no weaklings. The presence of the artful David Pocock in the back row will test the credentials of Sam Warburton in a duel for the loose ball but will provide an even greater test of the refereeing. This is not to say that Warburton or his fellow tradesmen at openside have never committed an infringement, but when you watch Pocock operating you wonder how on earth referees can judge that he is bearing his own bodyweight, when his body is actually parallel to the ground and a few inches off it.
Wales have very few injury problems, if you discount the fate of Warren Gatland, injured on house maintenance duties. Gatland is expected to join the tour at some point, with Rob Howley in charge until then. The rest of the team, apart from Jamie Roberts and Gatland, is intact, with only the Osprey contingent lacking a reasonable period of rest. It is now some time since the representatives in the squad from the Dragons, Blues and Scarlets played meaningful rugby.
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When you look through the squad, it would be ridiculous not to expect Wales to win at least one Test match. Certainly, they have selection dilemmas of the best kind. In the second row Alun Wyn Jones is the acknowledged lineout leader, Bradley Davies is one of the hardest-working forwards in the British game, Ian Evans has had a monumental season for club and country and Luke Charteris is arguably the best of them all. The other main selection dilemma is at inside-centre. James Hook has superb talents that can be employed in the position, and to have Hook there as a second playmaker would take some of the pressure away from Rhys Priestland at fly-half, as well as add a kicking option. For someone as brilliant as Shane Williams to single out Hook as the most talented player he has come across is some testimonial.
However, to see the part played by Ashley Beck in the late surge by the Ospreys in the last month or two is to appreciate that there is another force on the scene. Howley has very important decisions to make here.
It is Priestland who will be the key man. Wales can rely on Adam Jones and any combination of the locks to provide a platform up front, and they can probably rely on Toby Faletau to explode on the hard surfaces of Australia. What they need is Priestland to be at his best. He is a wonderful talent and will clearly be competing with Jonathan Sexton of Ireland for the place as Test fly-half on the Lions tour of Australia next year.
However, there are times when he seems to shrink from the spotlight just a little, when he seems reluctant to back himself and his armoury of skills. If Howley and Co can bend his ear then Wales have their general and their chances improve further.
It could be a wonderful series. The fact that all three of the home nations are playing three Test matches adds to the commercial clout and the level of interest — although it probably also further devalues the currency of international rugby.
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But Wales would put up with an awful lot to come back victorious, to defy the statistics and to turn history on its head. They have a fighting chance; at their best they are probably good enough.
The Six Nations, in a way, was a preamble. Wales now engage in the real thing.