There can never have been a better time to talk about risk than on the eve of the Grand National in the time of Covid. Tomorrow afternoon 40 horses and riders will carry the hopes of millions as they set off over the 30 fences and four hazardous miles of the Aintree course.
Meanwhile millions more will tie themselves in knots as they fret over the million-to-one chance of a bad outcome from the proven lifesaver that is the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. Who are the silly ones?
On the face of it, those of us who have ridden in the event can be accused of being heedless of our own and, in particular, of our horse’s safety. It is not something that should be taken lightly as the Grand National story shows — 100 years ago when Shaun Spadah and the great Welsh rider Dick Rees were the first of only four finishers, and the only ones to do so without falling in the bog-like conditions, the reactions were only of congratulations. When Red Marauder and Richard Guest did almost the same thing in 2001, there was an outcry against allowing the race to be run.
However, you have only to look at the old newsreels or to hear the tales to appreciate how much heeding there has been. Time was when there was a stonewall, a section of ploughed field and a hurdle on the seemingly endless 464-yard run-in.
In the 1959 film of Oxo’s National there is nothing but an upbeat “bad luck, old boy” tone in the commentary as horses somersault fatally at Becher’s Brook. By the time I was one of 47 starters (and 19 fallers) in 1965, the fences were less upright — and three more factors have filed the teeth of danger’s jaws.
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The drops have been removed from the early fences. They used to make landing seem like missing a stair in the dark. The wooden stakes in the heart of the fence have been replaced by plastic and, in an often unstressed improvement, space has been made for the loose horse to keep clear of the fences.
Of course some of us can rail against the lessening of the challenge, the diminution of the achievement, some may even call up some of the more provocative “the world’s gone soft” words of Red Rum’s trainer, Ginger McCain. But they need to remember that by the end Ginger often had his tongue in his cheek. Perhaps even when he said: “In the old days, jockeys were expendable. We didn’t call off meeting if one got hurt. We wrapped them up, slung them in the ditch, and buried them if they started to smell.”
The truth is that in many ways the race and Aintree itself are in better shape than they have ever been. Never forget that, before Red Rum’s three victories and two second-place finishes in the Seventies, the course was in serious danger of closure and, even after him, parts of Liverpool were close to basket case.
The course and its surrounding are very different now and, crucially, the racetrack has allied itself with the area to ensure the city has taken what was often seen as a “County Set” outing to its own heart. How poignant that tragedy has taken from us Rose Paterson, whose time as chairwoman was infused with inclusive charm.
Rose was a listener — racing has listened and the hope is that on this day the wider world can appreciate its strengths rather than concentrate on the worry and the whimsy. That applies especially to women jockeys. Sure, it was an oddity when Charlotte Brew was the trailblazer and struggled round to the 28th in 1977, but the chances of Minella Times (9-1) Yala Enki (33-1) and Sub Lieutenant (50-1) are reckoned on the horses’ ability, not the gender of Rachael Blackmore, Bryony Frost or Tabitha Worsley.
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Minella Times clearly has a tremendous chance and after her exploits at Cheltenham, Blackmore would be taking herself into the stratosphere. But as TV came to understand, this is no giddy beginner but a talented 31-year-old graduate, using a lot more mind than muscle, who knows that the game can come up and bite you. Blackmore found that out to her cost yesterday when Jason The Militant, the favourite, dumped her over the side when leading the Aintree Hurdle.
With 40 runners, not all the starters will complete the course. Some may even suffer injuries and in the nature of things it can even get worse. But the risks are far less than they were, the awareness of trainers and jockeys much sharper. These are not gung-ho idiots but skilled athletes facing the ride of their life.
Among them are the veteran Tom Scudamore, having his 19th ride on the favourite Cloth Cap, the rookie Jack Tudor, riding Potters Corner in the hope of being the first Welsh-trained winner since the Liverpudlian “Tich” Mason won on Kirkland way back in 1905. Potters Corner has already won the Welsh, the Midlands and even last year’s Virtual Grand National, so why not a clean sweep?
My vote is for Blackmore and how she can show us not to be risk-averse. We should, as horses and jockeys are more than ever at Aintree, be risk-ready. Risks are there to be taken, especially if you or your money are galloping at them.
