Forget about the World Cup. Success or failure in the autumn counts for nothing in this year’s RBS Six Nations Championship - or that is what fans of Wales, Ireland and Italy must be hoping after not reaching the quarter-finals.
Much has changed since then. Three of the six nations have new coaches and captains while several famous names have left the stage. They have been replaced by players whose names may not be familiar now, but in ten years’ time we could all be talking about this year as the time when we first became aware of Danny Cipriani, Nick De Luca or François Trinh-Duc.
England v Wales
This is a real battle between club and country - 13 of the Wales starting XV come from the Ospreys. It is a clever decision by Warren Gatland, the new Wales head coach, to choose players who know each other well. And the two non-Ospreys players - Martyn Williams and Mark Jones - have 112 caps between them.
England enter this Six Nations as favourites, but Wales could be dark horses. The Ospreys have reached the quarter-finals of the Heineken Cup and their players will be tough to crack. Gloucester came from behind to beat them at Kingsholm in November and with four of that team in the England squad - Iain Balshaw, Mike Tindall, Lesley Vainikolo and Luke Narraway - they can pass on some hints. The England pack is experienced and the back line is fresh and exciting. Four of the backs who started the World Cup final have gone, with Mark Cueto and Mathew Tait dropped, but the replacements give cause for optimism. Balshaw and Tindall are experienced and playing well, while Toby Flood and David Strettle could be stars of the next World Cup.
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And what talent on the bench! With youngsters such as Cipriani and Richard Wigglesworth bursting to come on and some exotic sparkle from Vainikolo, England have too much in reserve.
Verdict: England by four points
Ireland v Italy
Ireland have more to prove because of the expectation of playing at home. Peter Stringer, the scrum half, is only on the bench, where he will sit beside the exciting Leinster youngsters, Jamie Heaslip, the No8, and Rob Kearney, the wing, but otherwise Ireland field a similar XV to the one that underperformed in the World Cup. Nick Mallett, the new Italy coach, is a fantastic motivator while Sergio Parisse, the new captain, has many fans in my country as he is dating a former Miss France. Clearly he has excellent taste.
Half-back has long been Italy’s Achilles’ heel and there are new faces there in Pietro Travagli, the Overmach Parma scrum half, and Andrea Masi, a threequarter converted into a fly half.
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Verdict: Ireland by ten points
Scotland v France
Tomorrow’s match is tough to call because Marc Lièvremont has chosen so many new players. The new France coach clearly has big balls.
Some decisions have been forced upon him - it was sad that Florian Fritz, the brilliant Toulouse centre, should break his leg in training this week - but he has made several gambles which I hope come off. Trinh-Duc is one of four who will be making their debuts for France. He has been in good form for Montpellier but is only 21 and it is a lot of responsibility to ask him to lead the back line. Morgan Parra, the Bourgoin scrum half who starts on the bench, is 19. It is an exciting time for France, but will the famous wet weather in Edinburgh allow the young team to play with the sort of flair that Lièvremont hopes?
Scotland will be full of optimism after almost reaching the World Cup semi-finals. Like France, they have a very young side and are always tough to beat at home. This could be the game of the weekend.
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Verdict: France by two points
For England to score, much depends on how Wales defend. If they use the drift defence, England can spread the ball wide if they want but, given the players they have, they would be better off keeping it tight, and sending drive after drive of close runners at Wales to suck in bodies and free up space for the backs. Someone like Mike Tindall, who can stay on his feet in the tackle, will commit extra Welshman. If Shaun Edwards has already got Wales using a blitz defence, perhaps a magic kick from Toby Flood is what England need to catch Wales on the hop. Flood has the swift reactions to angle the ball over the defence - but he needs a quick wing outside him, such as Paul Sackey or David Strettle, to take advantage