Median price at May 2004: £90,000
General increase since September 2004: 15%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10-15%
Market view: Until 15 years ago, if you lived in Glasgow’s city centre you were probably a council tenant — there really was nothing to rent or buy in the private sector. Slowly but surely, Glasgow has been filling that vacuum, adding residential developments to the bars, shops and leisure outlets for which its commercial centre is famous.
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Experts claim that part of the reason for falls in population and prosperity in Glasgow in the past was that there was nowhere within the city for wealthy people to live — they had to commute from outlying areas.
Broadly, growth in the city centre means new developments, particularly by the river, in the Merchant City and on the northern fringes of the southside. Thanks to enlightened planners and trailblazing architectural practices such as GM+AD, Glasgow is a very progressive city. Nevertheless, the best new-build is still only two-thirds the value of its equivalent in Edinburgh.
Glasgow’s market still has a lot of catching up to do, so it’s still a draw for buy-to-let investors. However, the watchword should be quality.
Thanks to over-optimistic buy-to-let purchasing, what was a £700-a-month flat in Glasgow’s centre can now be let for £595. It’s a saturated market and over-geared investors are cashing up where they can’t turn a profit — just as they did in Edinburgh two years ago.
While that might temporarily hold down prices, it won’t satisfy demand, especially for young Glaswegians looking to trade up through the market.
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New 1-bed apartment
September 2003: £98,000
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September 2004: £119,000
September 2005: £130,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment
September 2003: £92,000
September 2004: £114,000
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September 2005: £120,000
New 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £141,000
September 2004: £166,000
September 2005: £175,000
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Second-hand 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £125,000
September 2004: £145,000
September 2005: £153,000
Penthouse
September 2003: £266,000
September 2004: £296,000
September 2005: £326,000
(Source: GSPC, Knight Frank)
GLASGOW EAST
Baillieston, Garrowhill, Mount Vernon, Sandybraes, Sandyhills, Shettleston
Median price at May 2004:
£82,806 (GSPC)
General increase since September 2003: 22%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10%
Market view: Like the lesser lights
of Glasgow north, Glasgow’s east end has typically been seen as a steady and unspectacular local
market driven by individuals gradually working their way up the property ladder.
Headline figures such as a 41% increase in the price of a three-bed detached bungalow in Mount Vernon or a 71% rise in the price of a two-bed semi-detached villa in Baillieston suggest that the boom in Glasgow’s southside and west-end hot spots have finally made their way east.
With a necessary correction on historically low prices having clearly taken place, it will be interesting to see whether Glasgow east can sustain its current rate of growth this year. Our experts predict a cautious 10% rise in the next 12 months.
Second-hand 3-bed detached bungalow (Mount Vernon)
September 2003: £163,000
September 2004: £230,000
September 2005: £253,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi
September 2003: £115,000
September 2004: £130,000
September 2005: £143,000
Second-hand 2-bed semi
(Garrowhill)
September 2003: £89,250
September 2004: £95,250
September 2005: £105,000
Second-hand 2-bed cottage flat (Baillieston)
September 2003: £43,000
September 2004: £58,000
September 2005: £63,800
Second-hand 2-bed semi
(Sandyhills)
September 2003: £82,500
September 2004: £110,000
September 2005: £121,000
New 2-bed apartment (Shettleston)
September 2003: £51,500
September 2004: £70,000
September 2005: £73,500
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Sandybraes)
September 2003: £47,000
September 2004: £51,550
September 2005: £54,200
Traditional 3-bed apartment (Denistoun)
September 2003: £48,000
September 2004: £62,350
September 2005: £65,460
New 3-bed apartment
September 2003: £51,500
September 2004: £70,000
September 2005: £73,500
New Penthouse
September 2003: £225,500
September 2004: £250,000
September 2005: £275,500
(Source: Wallace Quinn, GSPC, Knight Frank)
GLASGOW NORTH
Bearsden, Bishopbriggs, Milngavie, Millerston, Springburn
Median price at May 2004: £78,934 (GSPC)
General increase since September 2003: 32%
Projected increase to September 2005: 12%
Market view: Glasgow north is, in reality, a series of quite polarised micro-markets comprising Bearsden and Milngavie at the upper end of the spectrum, and historically poorer suburbs such as Millerston and Springburn at the other.
The buoyancy of current market conditions in the popular suburbs is best expressed in the impressive growth of popular executive family homes. A second-hand four-bed semi in Bearsden has grown by £50,000 since last year (20%).
In 12 months’ time our experts predict additional growth of between 8% and 10% and an average price of about £325,000 for a four-bed semi in Bearsden.
In Glasgow north’s less developed markets you might typically expect to pay a little more than £100,000 for a similar house, with a 12% increase predicted by September next year.
Apart from the likes of Bearsden, Milngavie and Bishopbriggs, it would be safe to conclude that Glasgow north remains very much a poor relation to Glasgow’s established west end and southside hot spots, and the high growth figures for this year can best be explained by a large percentage boost in price of some of Glasgow’s historically cheapest properties.
New 1-bed apartment (Bearsden)
September 2003: £120,000
September 2004: £135,000
September 2005: £140,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Bearsden)
September 2003: £110,000
September 2004: £125,000
September 2005: £130,000
New 2-bed apartment (Milngavie)
September 2003: £175,000
September 2004: £195,000
September 2005: £210,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Milngavie)
September 2003: £160,000
September 2004: £175,000
September 2005: £185,000
3-bed ex-council semi (Bearsden/Milngavie)
September 2003: £125,000
September 2004: £140,000
September 2005: £150,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (Bishopbriggs/Bearsden)
September 2003: £165,000
September 2004: £180,000
September 2005: £195,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi (Bearsden)
September 2003: £250,000
September 2004: £300,000
September 2005: £325,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached (Bearsden/Strathblane)
September 2003: £575,000
September 2004: £650,000
September 2005: £700,000
2-bed cottage (Killearn/Drymen)
September 2003: £180,000
September 2004: £200,000
September 2005: £220,000
4-bed town house (Bearsden)
September 2003: £300,000
September 2004: £325,000
September 2005: £350,000
New 1-bed apartment (Springburn, Millerston)
September 2003: £54,000
September 2004: £64,000
September 2005: £70,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment
September 2003: £48,000
September 2004: £56,000
September 2005: £64,000
New 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £64,000
September 2004: £72,000
September 2005: £80,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £59,000
September 2004: £79,000
September 2005: £84,000
3-bed ex-council
September 2003: £60,000
September 2004: £70,000
September 2005: £78,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi
September 2003: £82,000
September 2004: £96,000
September 2005: £108,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi
September 2003: £90,000
September 2004: £104,000
September 2005: £116,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached
September 2003: £112,000
September 2004: £130,000
September 2005: £142,000
2-bed cottage
September 2003: £67,000
September 2004: £78,000
September 2005: £88,000
(Source: Corum, GSPC)
GLASGOW SOUTH
Cardonald, Cathcart, Crossmyloof, Crookston, Shawlands, Newlands, Pollokshields, Strathbungo and Toryglen
Median price at May 2004: £111,245 (GSPC)
General increase since September 2003: 27%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10%-15%
Market view: Apart from football, nothing polarises Glaswegians more than property, and when it comes to the bitter rivalry between the southside and Glasgow’s bohemian west end, the barbs are keenly felt. Residents of southside hot spots such as Shawlands, Newlands, Pollokshields and Strathbungo claim they’re the talk of the London dinner-party circuit and the first-choice destination for southern relocators to Glasgow. Westenders sneer that it’s an idle boast popularised by media folk priced out of the superior districts of Hillhead, Hyndland and Dowanhill.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between. The southside comprises a series of historically parochial micro-markets that have benefited greatly from the influx of both Glaswegians priced out of their local markets and southern buyers attracted to the city’s superior quality of life. As such, most of the popular districts — as in the west end — have been growing at about 15% to 20% year on year since the turn of the millennium, with projected growth of about 10% to 15% in the next 12 months.
The average price of a southside two-bed is currently £111,000, according to the Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre (GSPC), yet this figure masks a phenomenal divergence in prices.
Across the board, prices have risen steeply. In September 2001 you’d have expected to pay £105,000 for a two-bed in chi chi Strathbungo — Glasgow’s answer to Notting Hill. Now, due to limited supply, that price will have jumped to more than £170,000 (a 62% rise in three years).
In the past year, a grand southside five-bed town house will have risen in value by £80,000 to £380,000. With little sign of demand slackening off, agents say even average properties in Shawlands and Kilmarnock Road have doubled in value over the past four years.
New 1-bed apartment (Shawlands)
September 2003: £85,000
September 2004: £98,000
September 2005: £108,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Pollokshields)
September 2003: £78,000
September 2004: £92,000
September 2005: £105,000
New 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £105,000
September 2004: £130,000
September 2005: £145,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Kinning Park/Shawlands)
September 2003: £87,000
September 2004: £111,000
September 2005: £118,000
3-bed ex-council (Toryglen)
September 2003: £115,000
September 2004: £135,000
September 2005: £145,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi
September 2003: £175,000
September 2004: £190,000
September 2005: £205,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi (Crossmyloof/Crookston)
September 2003: £210,000
September 2004: £238,000
September 2005: £252,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached
September 2003: £250,000
September 2004: £270,000
September 2005: £285,000
4-bed town house
September 2003: £195,000
September 2004: £230,000
September 2005: £240,000
New 1-bed apartment (Newlands, Cathcart, Strathbungo)
September 2003: £90,000
September 2004: £120,000
September 2005: £130,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Shawlands)
September 2003: £75,000
September 2004: £95,000
September 2005: £105,000
New 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £130,000
September 2004: £160,000
September 2005: £165,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (Cardonald)
September 2003: £160,000
September 2004: £200,000
September 2005: £220,000
Second-hand 3-bed terrace (Pollokshields)
September 2003: £180,000
September 2004: £240,000
September 2005: £250,000
5-bed terraced (Newlands)
September 2003: £300,000
September 2004: £380,000
September 2005: £420,000
New 1-bed upmarket
September 2003: £95,000
September 2004: £110,000
September 2005: £122,000
New 2-bed upmarket
September 2003: £140,000
September 2004: £160,000
September 2005: £176,000
New 3-bed upmarket
September 2003: £168,000
September 2004: £190,000
September 2005: £210,000
Penthouse
September 2003: £250,000
September 2004: £275,000
September 2005: £300,000
(Source: Slater Hogg, GSPC, Knight Frank)
GLASGOW WEST
Hyndland, Dowanhill, Hillhead, Kelvindale, Partick, Finnieston and North Kelvinside
Median price at May 2004: £146,706 (GSPC)
General increase since September 2003: 16%
Projected increase to September 2005: 10%
Market view: With its university campus, trendy bars and shops, parks and convenient amenities, Glasgow’s west end has long been viewed by the city’s estate agents as a passport to riches.
The combination of attractive period property, amenities, transport links, schools, a picturesque setting and laidback lifestyle ensures that buyers — especially incomers — will always want to live here.
Until recently, the wisdom within Dowanhill, Hyndland, Hillhead, Kelvindale and popular streets in Partick, Finnieston and North Kelvinside is that the best properties would go for anything from 30% to 50% over the asking price, with almost every property going to a closing date and, inevitably, a Dutch auction at the close of sale.
Since the millennium, west end prices have been rising between 15% and 20% year on year. A certain amount of scaremongering — and the growing realisation among many buyers that they cannot afford the west end — has prevented a repeat of last summer’s feeding frenzy.
A nice two-bed flat in Dowanside Road can achieve around £180,000 at present, and a typical one-bed Partick flat would get about £110,000 (the price of a Maryhill two-bed). A Hyndland town house in its own grounds (Turnberry Road) would get about £650,000 in the current market — here there is a premium on specific streets, as opposed to areas.
Last summer agents would have expected seven or eight offers at closing, as opposed to the present average of two or three. Houses are taking slightly longer to sell but, crucially, the interest is mostly serious, determined and prepared to pay at the market rate.
With the school holidays safely behind us, agents predict that the west end will take another jump this month and they confidently forecast rises of between 10% and 15% by next September.
New 1-bed apartment
September 2003: £110,000
September 2004: £120,000
September 2005: £135,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment
(North Kelvinside)
September 2003: £140,000
September 2004: £150,000
September 2005: £165,000
New 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £190,000
September 2004: £210,000
September 2005: £230,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Hyndland)
September 2003: £220,000 September 2004: £235,000
September 2005: £250,000
2-bed traditional flat (Dowanhill)
September 2003: £200,000
September 2004: £230,000
September 2005: £245,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (Dowanhill)
September 2003: £330,000
September 2004: £365,000
September 2005: £390,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi
(traditional style, Dowanhill)
September 2003: £310,000
September 2004: £330,000
September 2005: £350,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi
September 2003: £375,000
September 2004: £390,000
September 2005: £420,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached
September 2003: £380,000
September 2005: £400,000
September 2005: £420,000
4-bed town house
September 2003: £500,000
September 2004: £550,000
September 2005: £580,000
New 1-bed apartment (Knightswood, Scotstoun, Maryhill)
September 2003: £110,000
September 2004: £130,000
September 2005: £139,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Broomhill)
September 2003: £107,000
September 2004: £126,000
September 2005: £136,000
New 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £134,000
September 2004: £157,000
September 2005: £169,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Anniesland)
September 2003: £126,000
September 2004: £146,000
September 2005: £153,000
Ex-council 3-bed (Maryhill)
September 2003: £110,000
September 2004: £118,000
September 2005: £122,000
3-bed ex-council (Blairdardie)
September 2003: £119,000
September 2004: £136,000
September 2005: £149,000
Second-hand 3-bed apartment (Dowanhill)
September 2003: £181,000
September 2004: £198,000
September 2005: £216,000
2-bed cottage
September 2003: £138,000
September 2004: £152,000
September 2005: £168,000
New 1-bed apartment
September 2003: £90,000
September 2004: £130,000
September 2005: £143,000
New 2-bed apartment
September 2003: £165,000
September 2004: £195,000
September 2005: £218,000
New 3-bed apartment
September 2003: £220,000
September 2004: £265,000
September 2005: £310,000
Penthouse
September 2003: £350,000
September 2004: £400,000
September 2005: £425,000
(Source: GSPC, Corum, Slater Hogg)