Median price at May 2006: £94,115
General increase since Sept 2005: 5%-8%
Projected increase to Sept 2007: 5%-8%
That has not materialised as anticipated, however, and Glasgow’s East End prices have fallen into line with price growth elsewhere in Glasgow at just above the inflation rate.
Advertisement
In July, the penthouse in the Coia building was sold for a rumoured £200,000, confirming the widely held impression that Dennistoun in particular now seems overexposed as an area for bargain-hunting first-time buyers and bohemians priced out of the west end.
Prices are also rising in other much less vaunted east end locations, with two-bed flats on the cusp of Riddrie, Carntyne and Haghill selling for as much as £145,000. Despite the slight slowdown of annual growth, it seems everywhere you look in the east end new homes are being built. Presumably the prospect of Glasgow winning the 2014 Commonwealth Games and growth in its student population are fuelling longer-term ambitions.
According to Stuart Black of Knight Frank, the relative low cost in Glasgow is luring investors as properties here offer a lower capital risk than previous hot spots such as Manchester and Birmingham.
With prices in Glasgow dipping slightly last year, investors believe they have a good opportunity to buy, and institutions, investor clubs and individuals are moving in, looking to extend their portfolios.
“A couple of years ago Glasgow saw little buy-to-let growth, mainly because some developments were overpriced,” says Black. “The market cannot sustain high enough rentals for some of the higher-priced properties, but now these regeneration areas offer low capital investment, higher rental yields and capital growth.”
Advertisement
With it’s historically low starting base for house prices and regeneration continuing apace, Glasgow’s east end may well be the beneficiary of a second buy-to-let boom in the city, even if, for the moment, the owner-occupier market appears to have contracted to annual growth of about 5%.
Mount Vernon 3-bed semi bungalow September 2005: £180,000 September 2006: £195,000 September 2007: £205,000
2-bed semi-detached villa September 2005: £133,000 September 2006: £140,000 September 2007: £145,000
3-bed semi-detached villa September 2005: £147,000 September 2006: £158,000 September 2007: £155,000
Advertisement
Garrowhill 3-bed semi-detached villa September 2005: £146,000 September 2006: £157,000 September 2007: £150/160,000
2-bed semi-detached villa September 2005: £125,000 September 2006: £140,000 September 2007: £135,000
Baillieston 2-bed semi-detached villa September 2005: £115,000 September 2006: £130,000 September 2007: £125,000
2-bed apartment September 2005: £75,000 September 2006: £90,000 September 2007: £90,000
Sandyhills 3-bed semi-detached villa September 2005: £130,000 September 2006: £133,000 September 2007: £145,000
Advertisement
2-bed semi-detached villa September 2005: £120,000 September 2006: £125,000 September 2007: £135,000
Sandybraes Second-hand 3-bed apartment September 2005: £60,000 September 2006: £63,000 September 2007: £68,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment September 2005: £51,500 September 2006: £51,600 September 2007: £61,000
Shettleston 3-bed traditional apartment September 2005: £75,000 September 2006: £78,000 September 2007: £84,000
2-bed traditional apartment September 2005: £65,000 September 2006: £69,000 September 2007: £80,000
Advertisement
2-bed newbuild flat September 2005: £73,000 September 2006: £74,000 September 2007: £100,000 (Source: Wallace Quinn)
Glasgow North
Median price at May 2006: £94,115
General increase since Sept 2005: 5%-8%
Projected increase to Sept 2007: 5%-8%
With many Glaswegians unable to bridge the income gap to trade up from large flats to family houses, the £250,000-£350,000 family home sector has remained pretty sluggish for more than a year now. In Bearsden, the erstwhile home of the trading-up suburban family, last June actually saw a marginal average house price decrease from £220,248 to £206,943.
Since then, however, widespread confidence has returned to what was a very jittery marketplace, with gains of about 15% re-establishing the status quo of steady annual growth. Last year Bearsden recorded Glasgow’s highest sale of £1.32m for No 28 Drymen Road. Twelve months on, that record will be smashed as Bearsden — and Glasgow — bursts through the £2m barrier for the first time.
But while Glaswegians will view these millionaire sales as evidence of mature market conditions, on a national and international level Glasgow’s prices remain either small beer or extremely competitive, depending on your point of view.
It is believed Edinburgh will be celebrating its first £5m sale in Barnton or The Grange just as Glasgow completes its first £2m deal.
From the sublime of Bearsden’s millionaires rows, which provides a home to the likes of former Rangers’ manager Alex McLeish, Glasgow North also embraces the ridiculous — or at least the extremely cheap — in the form of one-bed flats in Springburn and Millerston that can be snapped up for a bargain-basement £72,000. These areas’ locations, and the rough and ready reputation they are notorious for, ensures that gentrification may be some way off. And even with tempting asking prices well shy of £100,000, it’s unlikely this urban hinterland will see an influx of investors or first-time buyers anytime soon.
New 1-bed apartment (Bearsden) September 2005: £135,000 September 2006: £140,000 September 2007: £150,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment (Bearsden) September 2005: £125,000 September 2006: £130,000 September 2007: £140,000
New 2-bed apartment (Milngavie) September 2005: £200,000 September 2006: £210,000 September 2007: £210,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment (Milngavie) September 2005: £175,000 September 2006: £180,000 September 2007: £185,000
Ex-council 3-bed semi (Bearsden/Milngavie) September 2005: £145,000 September 2006: £150,000 September 2007: £165,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (Bishopbriggs/Bearsden) September 2005: £185,000 September 2006: £190,000 September 2007: £210,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi (Bearsden) September 2005: £325,000 September 2006: £350,000 September 2007: £400,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached (Bearsden/Strathblane) September 2005: £750,000 September 2006: £800,000 September 2007: £900,000
2-bed cottage (Killearn/Drymen) September 2005: £230,000 September 2006: £250,000 September 2007: £280,000
4-bed town house (Bearsden) September 2005: £335,000 September 2006: £350,000 September 2007: £375,000 (Source: Corum)
Springburn, Millerston New 1-bed apartment September 2005: £69,000 September 2006: £72,000 September 2007: £72,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment September 2005: £61,000 September 2006: £64,000 September 2007: £66,000
New 2-bed apartment September 2005: £78,000 September 2006: £81,000 September 2007: £81,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment September 2005: £84,000 September 2006: £88,000 September 2007: £90,000
Ex-council 3-bed September 2005: £75,000 September 2006: £78,000 September 2007: £80,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi September 2006: £104,000 September 2006: £108,000 September 2007: £111,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi September 2005: £114,000 September 2006: £117,000 September 2007: £122,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached September 2005: £140,000 September 2006: £146,000 September 2007: £152,000
2-bed cottage September 2005: £85,000 September 2006: £88,000 September 2007: £90,000
4-bed town house September 2005: £124,000 September 2006: £129,000 September 2007: £133,000 (Source: GSPC)
Glasgow South
Median price at May 2006: £124,797
General increase since Sept 2005: 5%-10%
Projected increase to Sept 2007: 5%
After a phenomenal five years where southside residents have grown accustomed to regular annual capital growth returns of between 15%-20%, the market in the past year, while still growing, has definitely paused for breath.
But it’s easy to forget just how far the southside has come since the late 1990s’ boom began. Back in 2001, a nice two-bed flat in bohemian Strathbungo would have cost £105,000. Nowadays you can expect to pay about £198,000 for the same property — a growth of more than 85% in five years. Even average southside homes will have doubled in value since 2000.
In common with a lot of urban markets, buyers in the southside are expressing a marked preference for traditional Victorian stone properties over newbuild. And with buy-to-let reaching its full capacity and new developments wilting in the face of oversupply, Boyle says: “Stone-built traditional houses really are the safest option in terms of protecting your capital.”
The most dramatic developments south of the Clyde, however, have been in the well-to-do East Renfrewshire hot spots of Newton Mearns, Giffnock, Clarkston, Busby and Eaglesham, areas that are commonly thought of as belonging to the southside property portfolio, despite their local authority status.
In the 12 months to June 2005, the average price of a home in Glasgow’s west end has risen by £5,400 to £156,395. In the same period, the equivalent figure for East Renfrewshire rose by a whopping £10,200, to £157,170.
Announcing the dramatic figures, Mark Hordern of the Glasgow Solicitors’ Property Centre (GSPC) says: “For the first time since we began keeping records East Renfrewshire is outperforming the west end.”
But Hordern believes the fluctuating status of the competing property hot spots is less to do with a change in fashion than the result of new additions to East Renfrewshire’s portfolio.
Citing new developments by the likes of Cala, Miller Homes and Mactaggart and Mickel, Hordern says that while the west end has seen a rash of new apartments, in keeping with its youthful core constituency, East Renfrewshire and other areas on Glasgow’s southern border have seen an explosion of new family-sized bungalows and executive houses.
The difference in price between a two-bed flat and an upscale family home can be well over £200,000, so it stands to reason these large southside developments have created this huge £10,000-plus hike in East Renfrewshire’s average house price.
While Glasgow’s west end relies on a steady — and transient — stream of students, young professionals and graduate buyers to sustain price growth, East Renfrewshire’s prices are linked to a solidly middle-class, corporate, family profile and a partisanly loyal local population that has been growing steadily without interruption since 1945.
With a population of 20,000, Newton Mearns, East Renfreshire’s jewel in the crown, is considered to be second only to Livingston in terms of rate of population growth in Scotland. Indeed, more than 30% of its housing stock has been built in the past 15 years.
Unlike the streets around Byres Road, which the city council aims to refashion as “Glasgow’s answer to Greenwich Village”, East Renfrewshire is a solid two kids, two car location. As such, double income couples in their thirties tend to buy a family home here and stay put for at least 15 years while their kids attend one of the many excellent schools nearby.
Another year of steady growth is forecast, but by 2007 it looks like Glasgow’s west end, with its portfolio of desirable flats and prime town houses and family homes with gardens, will assume pole position in the region once more.
New 1-bed apartment September 2005: £106,000 September 2006: £110,000 September 2007: £110,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment September 2005: £99,000 September 2006: £103,000 September 2007: £105,000
New 2-bed apartment September 2005: £140,000 September 2006: £145,000 September 2007: £145,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment September 2005: £118,000 September 2006: £127,000 September 2007: £130,000
Ex-council 3-bed September 2005: £145,000 September 2006: £151,000 September 2007: £152,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi September 2005: £204,000 September 2006: £212,000 September 2007: £222,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi September 2005: £255,000 September 2006: £266,000 September 2007: £277,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached September 2005: £290,000 September 2006: £302,000 September 2007: £314,000
4-bed town house September 2005: £247,000 September 2006: £257,000 September 2007: £267,000 (Source: GSPC)
Glasgow southside
Shawlands, Newlands, Cathcart, Strathbungo etc New 1-bed apartment September 2005: £128,000 September 2006: £132,000 September 2007: £134,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment September 2005: £105,000 September 2006: £109,000 September 2007: £115,000
New 2-bed apartment eptember 2005: £169,000 September 2006: £175,000 September 2007: £183,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi September 2005: £215,000 September 2006: £225,000 September 2007: £237,000
Second-hand 3-bed terrace September 2005: £255,000 September 2006: £268,000 September 2007: £280,000
5-bed town house September 2005: £400,000 September 2006: £417,000 September 2007: £430,000 (Source: Slater Hogg)
EAST RENFREWSHIRE
(Neilston, Barrhead, Newton Mearns, Clarkston, Eaglesham)
New 1-bed apartment September 2005: £111,000 September 2006: £125,000 September 2007: £135,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment September 2005: £106,000 September 2006: £118,000 September 2007: £124,000
New 2-bed apartment September 2005: £158,000 September 2006: £168,000 September 2007: £175,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment September 2005: £151,000 September 2006: £170,000 September 2007: £179,000
Ex-council 3-bed September 2005: £156,000 September 2006: £169,000 September 2007: £178,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi September 2005: £170,000 September 2006: £182,000 September 2007: £190,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi September 2004: £182,000 September 2005: £198,000 September 2006: £210,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached September 2005: £212,000 September 2006: £225,000 September 2007: £240,000
2-bed cottage September 2005: £152,000 September 2006: £166,000 September 2007: £170,000
4-bed town house September 2003: £176,000 September 2004: £190,000 September 2005: £215,000 (Sources: GSPC, Rightmove)
Glasgow West
Median price at May 2004: £168,357 (GSPC)
General increase since Sept 2003: 5%-8%
Projected increase to Sept 2005: 5%-8%
Compared to other areas of Glasgow, there are relatively few new-build developments or bland family homes priced around the stamp duty threshold of £250,000 — these are the homes that are doing least well in virtually every Scottish market.
Mark Hordern of the GSPC says: “We think that growth in the next 12 months will be relatively moderate, about 5% or so on average. The only exception to this is in new-build flats, where we see little potential for growth this coming year.”
At Slater Hogg in Byres Road, Johnny Dixon is pleased with returns that defied last year’s doomy forecasts. “We’ve seen two excellent first quarters at Slater Hogg — numbers significantly better than our cautious predictions in 2005. There are no interest-rate fears as far as I can see, and this is a confident and settled market that looks set for another boost in the autumn.
“In a return to conditions of two years ago, houses here are selling in four weeks, and for good premiums. There is good incremental growth in most sectors, but the solidly performing Victorian stock of Hyndland and Dowanhill still remains Glasgow’s safest bet in terms of ongoing capital growth returns.”
New 1-bed apartment September 2005: £136,000 September 2006: £140,000 September 2007: £141,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment September 2005: £132,000 September 2006: £136,000 September 2007: £140,000
New 2-bed apartment September 2005: £162,000 September 2006: £167,000 September 2007: £167,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment September 2005: £152,000 September 2006: £157,000 September 2007: £164,000
Ex-council 3-bed September 2005: £142,000 September 2006: £146,000 September 2007: £150,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi September 2005: £208,000 September 2006: £214,000 September 2007: £223,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi September 2005: £272,000 September 2006: £280,000 September 2007: £297,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached September 2005: £299,000 September 2006: £303,000 September 2007: £315,000
2-bed cottage September 2005: £159,000 September 2006: £164,000 September 2007: £171,000
4-bed town house September 2005: £305,000 September 2006: £314,000 September 2007: £326,000 (Source: GSPC)
Hyndland, Dowanhill, Hillhead, Kelvindale, Partick, Finnieston and North Kelvinside
New 1-bed apartment September 2005: £132,000 September 2006: £137,000 September 2007: £145,000
Second-hand 1-bed apartment September 2005: £168,000 September 2006: £175,000 September 2007: £180,000
New 2-bed apartment September 2005: £225,000 September 2006: £225,000 September 2007: £225,000
Second-hand 2-bed apartment September 2005: £243,000 September 2006: £255,000 September 2007: £260,000
Ex-council 3-bed September 2005: £138,000 September 2006: £150,000 September 2007: £155,000
Second-hand 3-bed semi (traditional) September 2005: £340,000 September 2006: £345,000 September 2007: £365,000
Second-hand 4-bed semi (traditional) September 2005: £400,000 September 2006: £410,000 September 2007: £425,000
Second-hand 5-bed detached (modern) September 2005: £420,000 September 2006: £430,000 September 2007: £450,000
4-bed town house September 2005: £1m September 2006: £1.1m September 2007: £1.15m (Sources: Corum, Slater Hogg)