Yemen is the poorest country in the Middle East but its strategic importance to the West remains incalculable.
Whether President Saleh is thrown out or steps down, he will leave behind a country on the brink of failed statehood. During his time in power he has squandered the nation’s limited oil wealth buying the allegiance of tribes.
As oil income has dwindled he has been unable to quell a resurgent al-Qaeda or the separatist movement in the south, falling back on American aid and firepower.
On his watch al-Qaeda has regrouped and launched attacks on the West, including the two mail bombs bound for the US in October, and the attempt to blow up a transatlantic airliner on Christmas Day 2009.
Though weak and hopelessly corrupt, Mr Saleh has been propped up by Washington, a relationship that remains ambivalent at best but born of necessity. US special forces have been on the ground for a year at least.
Advertisement
Yemen is already close to ungovernable and none of the groups jockeying to replace the President appears predisposed to Western interests. If the country fails the West faces the nightmare prospect that the mouth of the Red Sea, and hence the Suez Canal, would be flanked by two failed states, with shipping open to attacks from Yemen and Somalia on the opposite shore.
As protests continued yesterday Western governments again called for restraint, as they have in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Oman. The question of who succeeds Mr Saleh will be uppermost on their true list of concerns and, in this case, they are right to be fearful.